2026 Poll: Flávio and Lula Tied on Eve of Second Round

The Futura Inteligencia Institute released on Saturday, the eve of the second round of voting, a new poll with the intentions of voting for President of the Republic in the 2026 elections. The survey, contracted by the institute itself, heard 2,000 interviewees between October 23 and 24, 2026. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.

In the scenario of valid votes, which excludes white, null and undecided, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) registers 50.1% of the voting intentions, while Lula (PT) marks 49.9%. The two candidates are technically tied within the margin of error, which indicates a tight dispute in the final straight.

Technical tie marks valid votes

The difference of only 0.2 percentage point between the candidates reinforces the indefinite scenario. Since the margin of error is 2.2 points to more or less, the percentages can fluctuate, maintaining the technical tie. This picture reflects the polarization observed throughout the electoral campaign.

The Institute of Future Intelligence conducted two types of approach: the spontaneous survey, when a prior list is not presented to the interviewees, and the stimulated scenario, when the names of the competitors to the office are shown for the choice of the voter. The detailed methodology is available at the end of this article.

Spontaneous research shows Lula ahead

In the spontaneous poll, Lula has 46.6% of the voting intentions, while Flávio totals 46.1%. The undecided number is 3.7%. In this format, the voter declares his candidate without the aid of a list, which may indicate greater conviction of the vote.

Lula’s small advantage in the spontaneous contrasts with Flavio’s slight advantage in the valid votes. This difference between the scenarios is common in electoral polls and reflects the way voters process the options presented.

Research methodology and registration

The survey was registered in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-09726/2026. They were 2,000 interviewed by the Futura Inteligência Institute between October 23 and 24, 2026. The confidence level is 95%, and the margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

The survey was contracted by the institute itself, without informed external funding. The People’s Gazette has published all the polls conducted by the main public opinion institutes of the country for years, as part of its commitment to electoral coverage.

Importance of methodological reading

Voting intention surveys make a reading for the time being, based on representative samples of the population. Interview methods, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the outcome.

Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the information of methodologies, found at the end of the articles of the Gazeta do Povo about electoral polls. The methodological transparency allows a more accurate interpretation of the numbers disclosed.

What to expect in the second round

With the technical tie in the valid votes, the result of the second round remains unpredictable. The margin of error of 2.2 percentage points means that any of the candidates can be ahead at the time of voting. Spontaneous research, with Lula numerically ahead, adds more uncertainty to the scenario.

Undecided voters, who add up to 3.7% in the spontaneous, can be decisive for the outcome. The mobilization of the bases and the last-minute campaign must directly influence the decision of these votes. The second round is scheduled for this Sunday (25).

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to track the counting and bring real-time updates. Follow our social networks and the website to not miss any information about the 2026 elections.

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