AI could widen the gap between countries, warn IMF and OECD
Reports from the IMF and OECD indicate that artificial intelligence could widen the gap between rich and poor countries. Effective adoption of AI could add up to 0.5% to annual global growth in the medium term, but about 40% of jobs worldwide may be exposed to the technology.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have issued warnings about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the global economy, highlighting the risk of widening the gap between rich and poor countries. International organizations point out that while technology can drive growth, its benefits tend to focus on nations with greater adoption capacity and digital infrastructure. The warning comes at a time of growing concern about automation and its effects on the labor market.
Effective adoption of AI could add up to 0.5% to annual global growth over the medium term, the IMF said. This increase will not be distributed evenly. Advanced economies, with greater access to capital, data and skilled labor, are in a privileged position to reap the fruits of innovation. Developing countries, many of which lack robust digital infrastructure and empowerment policies, may fall behind, deepening the existing economic gap.
Benefits concentrated in advanced economies
The promise of productivity gains with AI is real, but the distribution of these gains is unequal. The IMF estimates that about 40% of jobs worldwide may be exposed to AI as reports of mass layoffs gain strength. In high-income countries, exposure is even greater, reaching about 60% of jobs, according to analysis by the Fund.
This means that, without proper policies, technology can replace human tasks in entire sectors, generating unemployment and pressure on social protection systems.
On the other hand, AI can also create new opportunities, especially in areas such as data analytics, software development, and digital services. However, these opportunities require skills that many workers in low-income countries do not yet possess. The digital skills gap is one of the main obstacles for developing nations to take advantage of the AI revolution. Without investment in education and training, the risk is that technology will further widen global inequalities.
Impact on the global labour market
Reports of mass layoffs in sectors such as customer service, manufacturing and administrative services have multiplied. Large companies have adopted AI systems to automate repetitive tasks, reducing the need for human labor. The IMF notes that while exposure to AI does not necessarily mean elimination of jobs, it implies significant changes in the functions and skills required. Workers who fail to adapt are at risk of falling behind, especially in economies with weak social safety nets.
To mitigate these effects, the IMF and the OECD recommend active public policies such as vocational retraining programmes, investment in digital infrastructure and strengthening social protection. International cooperation is also pointed out as essential to ensure that the benefits of AI are shared more equitably. Without these measures, the disparity between rich and poor countries could deepen, with unpredictable social and political consequences.
Challenges for Developing Countries
Developing countries face structural barriers to adopting AI effectively. The lack of access to quality data, the shortage of qualified professionals and the limited infrastructure of the Internet are some of the main obstacles. In addition, many of these countries rely on labor-intensive sectors such as agriculture and light manufacturing, which are particularly vulnerable to automation. The OECD points out that without international support and adequate domestic policies, these nations can see their competitiveness decline further.
The transition to a digital economy requires significant investments in education, research and development. However, the resources available for these purposes are scarce in many low-income countries. The IMF suggests that the international community can play an important role by providing technical and financial assistance to help these countries build digital capacities. However, the source did not specify which specific mechanisms could be adopted to make this cooperation possible.
Perspectives and recommendations
Given this scenario, the IMF and the OECD emphasize the urgency of coordinated action. The adoption of AI is not a matter of choice, but of necessity to maintain global competitiveness. However, the pace and form of this adoption will determine whether the technology will be an equalizer or a watershed that deepens inequalities. The agencies recommend that governments prioritize policies of digital inclusion, continuing education and protection of workers affected by the transition.
For the Brazilian reader, especially in regions such as Ponta Grossa and Campos Gerais, the alert has direct relevance. The local economy, based on agribusiness, industry and services, can be impacted by task automation. Investing in technology empowerment and digital infrastructure can be a strategy to mitigate risks and seize opportunities. The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to monitor the development of this agenda and its effects on the region.
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