Big Data: Moro leads, Sandro is approaching and Requião Filho, just behind; by Gleidson Carlos

A new research shows how the Paraná government dispute is today. And there is one important detail that many people do not notice when looking at the numbers: what is the difference between a spontaneous research and a stimulated research?

In the Big Data survey, when the names of the candidates are presented to the voter, Sérgio Moro appears with 35%, Sandro Alex has 25% and Requião Filho, 21%. Moro leads, but the dispute for second place is tight.

Now look what happens when the voter gets no name. In the spontaneous poll, he simply answers who he wants to vote for. In this scenario, Moro appears with 18%, Sandro Alex with 12% and Requião with 10%. 46% don’t know or didn’t respond.

But beware: those 46% do not necessarily mean that 46% are undecided. Spontaneous polling requires the voter to remember and cite, on their own, the name of a candidate. Therefore, it also helps to show how much a candidacy is already present in the head of the voter and how much the decision is consolidated.

In the stimulated survey, the names are presented and the voter chooses between the options. So the number of undecided usually drops. In this research, 10% of the indecisive are stimulated.

Which research is worth more? Both of them. They measure different things. The spontaneous shows who is already in the head of the voter. The stimulated shows how he positions himself when he knows the options that are placed in the dispute.

And today's picture on the Paraná is this: Sérgio Moro leads, Sandro Alex approaches and Requião Filho appears just behind. But with a significant portion of the electorate still without a spontaneously defined preference, the dispute is far from settled.

The registration number of the Real Time Big Data research recently released on the Paraná (focused on state government and conducted between September 4 and 8, 2026) is BR-07275/2026 (or registered in the TSE under the number 08220/2026.

 

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