CNT/MDA: Lula leads with 47.8% of valid votes

The CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday, the day before the first round of voting, shows how the contest for president of the Republic in the 2026 elections is. The survey, contracted by the National Transport Confederation, heard 2,007 voters between September 30 and October 2. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.

In the count of valid votes, which excludes white, null and undecided, Lula (PT) appears ahead, with 47.8% of the voting intentions for the first round, against 42.1% of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The difference between the two candidates is 5.7 percentage points, above the margin of error, which indicates the advantage of the petista in this scenario.

Valid votes point to Lula in leadership

The MDA institute presented two scenarios of voting intention: the spontaneous one, when the names of the competitors are not shown previously to the voter, and the stimulated one, with a list of candidates. In both, the results were calculated in valid votes, excluding white, null and undecided. Lula’s leadership remains in both formats, according to the research.

Disclosure of valid votes is a common practice in electoral polls, as it simulates the official calculation of Justiça Eleitoral, which disregards blank and null votes. Thus, the percentages presented reflect only the dispute between the candidates who effectively receive votes. The CNT/MDA research follows this methodological pattern.

Second round has a technical draw

In the simulation of a possible second round, Lula and Flavio appear tied within the margin of error, with 47.3% against 43.1%, respectively. The difference of 4.2 percentage points is less than the margin of error of 2.2 points for more or less, which configures a technical tie. This scenario indicates a sharper dispute if the election goes to the second round.

The CNT/MDA survey simulated five second-round scenarios for president, all with the presence of Lula. In all of them, the petista appears numerically ahead, but within the margin of error in relation to the opponents. The source did not detail the other scenarios, but the technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro is the main highlight.

Methodology and registration in TSE

The research was carried out by the MDA institute, contracted by the National Transport Confederation (CNT). 2,007 voters were interviewed between September 30 and October 2, 2026. The confidence level is 95%, and the margin of error is 2.2 percentage points for more or less. The registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) was made under the number BR-04756/2026.

Interview methods, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the outcome. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the methodologies information found at the end of the Gazeta do Povo articles on election polls. The People’s Gazette has published for years all the polls of intention to vote conducted by the main public opinion institutes of the country.

Reading of moment and context

Voting intention surveys make a reading for the time being, based on representative samples of the population. They are not definitive predictions, but rather a portrait of the opinion of the electorate at the date of data collection. The disclosure on the eve of the first round gains even more relevance, as it can influence the decision of undecided voters or who consider changing the vote.

For the reader of Ponta Grossa and Campos Gerais, the national numbers help to understand the political scenario that is being drawn for the country. Although the survey does not bring regional cuts, the presidential dispute directly impacts public policies and federal investments in the Paraná. Monitoring the evolution of voting intentions is fundamental for the conscious voter.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to track the coverage of the 2026 elections, with updates on surveys, counting and analysis. Stay tuned for our upcoming publications so you don’t miss any of the election race details.

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