Datafolha: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie with 50% in second round

The Datafolha second round poll, released on Thursday (22), points to a tie between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with 50% of the valid votes for each candidate in the contest for the Presidency of the Republic. The result shows the balance of the electoral race three days from the vote, scheduled for Sunday (25), when voters of Ponta Grossa, Campos Gerais and all of Brazil will return to the polls.

The survey was conducted between October 20 and 22 and has a margin of error of two percentage points, for more or less. The research was contracted by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo and registered in Justiça Eleitoral under the protocol BR-09709/2026.

Datafolha shows tie in the final straight of the election

In comparison with the previous survey, released on October 15, Flávio Bolsonaro oscillated one percentage point down, while Lula presented a positive oscillation of one percentage point.

At the time, the candidate of the PL appeared with 51% of the valid votes, while the president recorded 49%. Both were already technically tied, considering the margin of error.

In the first round of Datafolha for the second round, released on October 8, Flávio had 52% of the valid voting intentions, against 48% of Lula.

Check the results in valid votes:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 50% (were 51%);

Lula (PT): 50% (were 49%).

Valid votes are those assigned to one of the candidates, excluding blank and null votes. This is the criterion used by Justiça Eleitoral to define the winner of the election.

Datafolha also presents the total votes

When all respondents are considered, including those who intend to vote blank, void the vote or have not yet chosen a candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead.

The senator registers 47% of the voting intentions, while Lula reaches 46%. The difference of one percentage point remains within the margin of error, characterizing technical tie.

See the total vote numbers:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 47% (were 47%);

Lula (PT): 46% (45%);

White, null or no: 5% (was 6%);

Do not know or did not answer: 2% (were 2%).

The results show that the difference between the candidates decreased compared to the previous survey, going from two to one percentage point in the total votes.

How was the research conducted?

The Datafolha second round survey was conducted between October 20 and 22, 2026, with interviews with voters 16 years of age or older in different regions of Brazil.

The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BR-09709/2026.

The confidence level indicates the degree of statistical accuracy expected for the research procedure. The percentages represent the intention to vote in the period of the interviews and do not constitute a definitive forecast of the result of the polls.

Source: Datafolha / Folha de S.Paulo. Search registered on TSE under number BR-09709/2026.

 

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