El Niño gains strength and Paraná may have more storms, floods and landslides

The El Niño on the Paraná is expected to gain even more strength in the coming months and increase favourable conditions for above-average rainfall, storms, windstorms, hail, storm surges and even landslides. Weather forecasts indicate that the phenomenon will continue to intensify during the spring and could reach its peak between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.

Recent data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of Estados Unidos (NOAA) show that the weekly anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, one of the main areas used to track the phenomenon, reached 1.8°C above the average. NOAA also points to a 90% chance of a very strong intensity episode over the next few months.

The projections cited in the weather update indicate that the warming of the Equatorial Pacific can still progress significantly, approaching 3 ° C above the climatic normal in the beginning of 2027. If the scenario is confirmed, the episode may be among the most intense El Niño events of recent decades.

Above average rainfall on Paraná

In the Paraná, one of the main reflections expected is the increase in the frequency and volume of rainfall. The Simepar points out that El Niño episodes favor above-average rainfall in the State, especially during the spring and early summer. For September, the forecast already indicates above-average volumes in all regions of Paraná.

The trend is that the most critical period occurs between November, December and January, when the combination of heat, humidity and the performance of different weather systems can favor episodes of heavy rain concentrated in a short period of time.

With large volumes of water in short periods, the risk of flooding, flooding and rapid elevation of the level of rivers and streams increases.

Temporary may become more frequent

Spring and summer are already naturally periods of greatest occurrence of storms in the Paraná. With the El Niño getting stronger, however, these events may gain frequency in some regions.

Among the associated phenomena are strong gusts of wind, hailfall, large amount of lightning and intense rain. The Defesa Civil and Simepar also warn historically for greater possibility of flooding, flooding and mass movements in periods of more intense El Niño.

The effects, however, should not occur uniformly throughout the Paraná. The West, Southwest and South-Central regions tend to have a significant influence on rainfall volumes, while other areas may also face above-average rainfall periods.

The risk of slippage requires attention

Another point of attention is the soaking of the soil. The sequence of rainfall episodes can increase the risk of landslides and landslides, especially on slopes, areas of vulnerable occupation and locations that already have a history of occurrences.

The guidance is for the population to follow the weather forecasts and, especially during periods of more severe instability, to be attentive to the warnings issued by the official bodies.

The Defesa Civil do Paraná maintains warning systems for situations involving storms, hail, storm surge and other adverse weather events.