El Niño strengthens and increases attention to weather events in PG and Campos Gerais

The strengthening of the El Niño in 2026 increases attention to periods of intense and stormy rainfall on the Ponta Grossa and the Campos Gerais in the coming months. Weather projections indicate that the phenomenon should gain even more intensity during the spring and can reach the category of very strong.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the Estados Unidos (NOAA) reported in August that the El Niño was in the process of strengthening and pointed out a probability of more than 90% that the phenomenon will reach very strong intensity during the second half of 2026 and early 2027. There is also the possibility that the episode will reach a historic level between October and December.

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The information reinforces projections also published in the South of Brazil. In Santa Catarina, for example, Defesa Civil intensified monitoring of the warming waters of the Pacific Ocean and considers spring 2026 one of the most important periods for monitoring the phenomenon.

Ponta Grossa has already recorded much above average rainfall

In the Paraná, the scenery also deserves attention. According to Simepar, the influence of El Niño should cause above-average rainfall in all regions of Paraná by December 2026, with the possibility of more frequent episodes of storms, heavy rain, flooding and flooding. The influence of the phenomenon may continue during the first quarter of 2027.

Ponta Grossa has already felt the effects of a rainier period this year. Data from Simepar show that, in June 2026, the municipality was among the cities in Paraná that recorded at least 100 millimeters of rainfall above the historical average for the month. The normal accumulated of June was reached in the city even in the first 15 days of that month.

Campos Gerais will rain above normal

For the Campos Gerais, the forecast also points to rainfall above the historical average. A regional analysis of Simepar places Campos Gerais, Norte, Curitiba and Litoral among the areas that, although they should feel less the effects of excess precipitation than West and Southwest, will continue with volumes above the climatological standard.

In addition to the total volume of rainfall, the concern lies in the possibility of occurrence of severe phenomena. Events of strong or very strong El Niño can favor storms capable of causing intense rain in a short time, large amount of lightning, strong gusts of wind and hailfall.

In the Paraná, the Defesa Civil maintains monitoring of the phenomenon in conjunction with Simepar. The state assessment points to the risk of winds, hail, floods and landslides during more severe weather episodes.

For September, specifically, Simepar forecasts above-average rainfall in all regions of Paraná, with higher frequency of instabilities due to the passage of cold fronts, low pressure systems and the very influence of El Niño. The trend is that the phenomenon reaches its period of greatest intensity precisely during the spring.

The guidance is to follow daily weather warnings and alerts of the Defesa Civil, especially during storm forecast periods.