Flávio has 50% rejection; Lula, 49%, says BTG/Nexus

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is rejected by 49% of the electorate, while his main opponent, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), has a 50% rejection, according to a BTG/Nexus survey released on Tuesday (8 September 2026). The numbers indicate a technical tie scenario, considering the margin of error of 2 percentage points for more or less.

The survey interviewed 2,002 people between September 4 and 7, 2026. The degree of confidence of the survey is 95%. The study is registered in the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-06790/2026 and cost R$ 164,888.89, paid by the bank BTG Pactual.

Strong rejection among the top candidates

The rejection indexes show a picture of strong polarization. Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 50% rejection, a percentage point above Lula, who registers 49%. The difference is within the margin of error, which means that both are technically tied in that matter.

The survey also measured voting intentions for president. In a possible second round, Flavio is numerically ahead of Lula, but the advantage is not statistically significant due to the margin of error of 2 percentage points. The scenario is a technical tie.

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Approval and evaluation of the Lula government

In addition to the rejection, the survey evaluated the approval of President Lula. According to the data, 50% disapprove of the government, while 45% approve. Another 4% did not know or did not respond.

In relation to the evaluation of the petista administration, 46% classify as “bad/bad”, 18% as “regular” and 36% as “excellent/good”. These figures reflect a negative assessment scenario for the current representative.

First round scenarios and Marçal's candidacy

The BTG/Nexus survey also simulated two first-round scenarios: one without Pablo Marçal (PRTB) and one with the candidate. Marçal is ineligible until 2032, but awaits trial of his candidacy. The inclusion or exclusion of your name may influence the distribution of votes, although the details have not been disclosed in full.

The complete survey is available in PDF format (3MB) and can be accessed by registering with TSE. Power360 offers Drive subscribers the Survey Aggregator, which gathers thousands of surveys since 2000, with data from 2026 open to all during the election period.

Election context and next steps

The figures released reinforce the competitiveness of the presidential dispute. With rejections so close and a technical draw in the second round, the campaign tends to intensify in the search for undecided voters and in the reduction of rejection.

For the reader of Ponta Grossa and Campos Gerais, the national scenario directly impacts local political discussions, since party alliances and candidates’ positions may reflect in state and municipal elections. The research does not bring specific data on the Paraná, but the general context serves as a thermometer for the political climate in the country.

The next step is to follow the evolution of these indices in the coming weeks, especially after the trial of the candidacy of Pablo Marçal and the official start of electoral propaganda. The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to bring updates on the electoral scenario.

📄 Related Documents

📎 in full (BTG-Nexus-nacional-8set2026.pdf)

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