Flávio leads five polls against Lula, but the race remains fierce in the second round

The dispute for the second round of the 2026 Elections between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) reaches the final straight marked by balance. Five polls released between Monday and Thursday put Flavio numerically ahead of the current president, but the differences are small and, according to the surveys, within the respective margins of error.

The numbers of the PowerData/Aya, Quaest, Meio/Idea, Palver and RealTime Big Data institutes show a competitive presidential election, in which none of the candidates appears with statistically consolidated advantage.

The most recent poll, released on Thursday (22) by PoderData/Aya, points to Flávio Bolsonaro with 51% of the valid votes, against 49% of Lula. The difference of two percentage points represents a technical tie, considering the margin of error of 1.6 percentage points.

See the results of the five polls for president

The surveys use different methodologies and collection periods. For ease of comparison, check out the percentages of total voting intention, which include respondents who did not choose one of the two candidates.

Institute

Flávio Bolsonaro

Lula

Disclosures

PoderData/Aya

49%

48%

Afghan

Quaest

45%

44%

Özil

Medium/Idea

48%

46%

Özil

Palver

50 %

48%

Özil

RealTime Big Data

48%

45%

ABC News

Source: surveys of the five institutes, as compiled published by UOL on October 22, 2026. The results are from separate surveys and should not be treated as an electoral average.

Flávio has 51% and Lula, 49% of the valid votes

The survey released on Thursday (22) indicates Flávio Bolsonaro’s numerical advantage, with 51% of the valid voting intentions. Lula appears with 49%. Compared to the previous survey of the same institute, released on Monday (19), Flavio went from 52% to 51%, while Lula went from 48% to 49%. The variations were within the margin of error.

Read also: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro meet in last debate this Friday (23)

In the form of total votes, the numbers presented were:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 49%;

Lula (PT): 48%;

White and null: 3%;

They don't know: 1%.

The survey interviewed 4,000 voters between October 19 and 21, with a margin of error of 1.6 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BR-07926/2026. The rounded results can add up to more or less 100%.

Quaest: difference of only one percentage point

The Quaest poll, released on Wednesday (21), also presents a scenario of balance among the presidential candidates. In the survey of total votes, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 45% of the intentions, while Lula registers 44%.

In the spontaneous survey, when the names of the candidates are not previously presented to the interviewees, both appear with 40%. Another 14% said they were undecided. Quaest also assessed the rejection of the candidates. In this indicator, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 52%, while Lula registers 47%.

The institute heard 2,154 voters between October 17 and 20. The margin of error is two percentage points, with 95% confidence. The research was commissioned by O Globo and TV Globo and registered under the number BR-08535/2026.

Idea: Flavio appears with 51.1% of the valid votes

The Meio/Idea Institute also released a survey on Wednesday (21), in which Flávio Bolsonaro registered 51.1% of the valid votes, against 48.9% of President Lula. Considering the total votes, the results are 48% for Flavio and 46% for Lula.

Whites and nulls account for 3.4% of the answers, while 2.6% of the respondents did not know who to vote for. 1,500 voters were heard over the phone between October 15 and 19. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points and the record in TSE is BR-08251/2026.

Palver: Flavio has 50%, against 48% of Lula

Palver presented Flávio Bolsonaro with 50% of the total voting intentions, while Lula appears with 48%. The difference of two percentage points is also within the margin of error reported by the institute, of 2.4 percentage points.

The blank and null votes represent 1% of the answers. The survey, according to the figures disclosed, recorded 0% for the respondents who did not know or did not respond. The poll heard 5,000 voters between October 18 and 20 and is registered in the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-04612/2026.

RealTime Big Data: difference reaches four points in valid votes

In the RealTime Big Data survey, released on Tuesday (20), Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 52% of the valid votes, while Lula registers 48%. When considering the total votes, the candidate of the PL scores 48%, against 45% of the petista. The survey also recorded 5% of blank and null votes and 2% of respondents who did not know or did not respond.

2,000 telephone interviews were conducted between October 15 and 19, with a confidence level of 95%. The study is registered in TSE under number BR-02952/2026. The difference observed in the valid votes was classified by the institute as within the margin of error.

What does the technical tie between Lula and Flavio mean?

Although Flávio Bolsonaro appears numerically ahead in the five surveys, the results do not allow to state that the candidate has a statistically safe leadership. The so-called technical tie occurs when the observed differences are not sufficient to rule out the possibility of statistical equality, considering the accuracy of the surveys.

It is also important to distinguish the two models of presentation of the results:

Total votes: include the percentages of all respondents, also considered white, null and undecided.

Valid votes: consider only the choices by one of the candidates, excluding blank and null votes. This is the criterion used by Justiça Eleitoral to define the winner.

The institutes may also present differences because of the methodology, the dates of the interviews and the profile of the voters consulted.

The second round of the 2026 elections will be on Sunday (25)

The second round of the presidential election takes place on Sunday, October 25, when Brazilians will return to the polls to choose the next president of the Republic. In Ponta Grossa, in Campos Gerais and throughout Paraná, voters will participate in the vote following the official time of Brasilia, from 8 am to 5 pm.

Until the opening of the polls, new polls may indicate possible changes in the preference of the electorate. However, the surveys represent the intention to vote in the interview period and not a definitive prediction of the electoral result. The confirmation of who will govern Brazil from 2027 will depend on the official counting of the votes carried out by Justiça Eleitoral.