Gerp: Flávio leads with 47% and Lula with 44% ahead of the second round
Survey by Gerp conducted between October 22 and 24 shows Flávio with 47% and Lula with 44% in spontaneous polling. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. In the first round, Flávio received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
On the eve of the second round of the presidential elections, the Gerp poll released on Friday (24) points to the candidate Flavio with 47% of voting intentions in the spontaneous mode, against 44% of Lula. The survey, hired by the institute itself, heard 2,400 voters between October 22 and 24, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95.55%.
The figures reflect a scenario of stability in relation to the last Gerp survey before the first round, published on October 3. At the time, Flavio appeared with 46% of the valid votes and Lula with 44%, also with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. In the polls, Flavio received 47.03% of the valid votes and Lula 45.16%.
Advantage of three points in spontaneous
In the spontaneous poll, when the names of the candidates are not presented to the voter before the answer, Flavio maintains an advantage of three percentage points over Lula: 47% against 44%. The undecided add up to 8% in this scenario. Gerp also carried out a stimulated scenario, in which the names of the competitors are mentioned, but the results of this modality were not detailed in the disclosure.
The difference between spontaneous and stimulated modalities is relevant for the reading of the electoral moment. In the spontaneous, the voter must spontaneously remember the candidate, which may indicate further consolidation of the vote. In the stimulated, the list of names can capture less firm voting intentions or influenced by the presentation of the options.
Comparison with the first round
The current Gerp figures show proximity to the actual performance of the candidates in the first round, held on October 5. Flavio obtained 47.03% of the valid votes, while Lula got 45.16%. The difference between the two was 1.87 percentage points.
In the last Gerp poll before that vote, published the day before (October 3), Flavio appeared with 46% of the valid vote intentions and Lula registered 44%, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. In other words, the result of the polls was within the margin of error of the survey, which reinforces the credibility of the institute for the current measurement.
Methodology and registration in TSE
The current Gerp survey was conducted with 2,400 interviewees between October 22 and 24, 2026. The survey was contracted by the institute itself, has a confidence level of 95.55% and a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is the number BR-09327/2026.
The previous survey, published before the first round, was conducted with 2,400 interviewees from September 30 to October 2, 2026, also hired by the institute itself, with the same level of confidence and margin of error. The registration on TSE is BR-00509/2026.
Interview methods, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the outcome. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the methodologies information found at the end of the Gazeta do Povo articles on election polls.
Reading of moment and care
The People’s Gazette has published for years all the polls of intention to vote conducted by the main public opinion institutes of the country. Voting intention surveys make a reading for the time being, based on representative samples of the population. This means that the numbers reflect the scenario at the date of data collection and may change until the day of voting.
For the voter, understanding the methodology is essential to correctly interpret the results. The margin of error, for example, indicates a range within which the actual value is likely to be. In the case of the Gerp survey, with a margin of 2 percentage points, Flavio’s advantage in spontaneous (47% to 44%) is in the margin limit, which suggests a technical tie scenario.
In addition, the number of undecided (8% on the spontaneous) can be decisive for the final result. These voters can still migrate to any of the candidates or choose to vote white or null. The survey did not detail the distribution of undecided people by demographic profile or region.
What to expect on Sunday
With the disclosure of this last survey before the second round, the scenario remains undefined within the margin of error. The stability of the numbers in relation to the first round suggests that the dispute will be tightened and that the mobilization of voters in the last days can make a difference.
The vote takes place this Sunday, October 26. The voters must attend the polls from 8 am to 5 pm, carrying official document with photo. The counting begins shortly after the end of the voting, and the official result is released by TSE.
To follow the full coverage of the elections, with analysis, real-time counting and repercussions, continue browsing the Boca no Trombone portal. Our team will be updating the information throughout Sunday.
Read Also
Debate Lula and Flavio have strategic guests
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro perform final acts in BH and Rio
Debate Lula and Flavio have attacks and economic dispute
Font
www.gazetadopovo.com
