Lula faces opposition Senate to approve names for STF
Lula has four vacancies to fill in STF until 2030, but the conservative majority Senate, led by PL, poses challenges. The rejection of Jorge Messias in 2026 showed that names linked to PT face resistance. The government will need to negotiate on a case-by-case basis to approve nominations.
President Lula will face one of the biggest political articulation challenges of his term: filling four vacancies in the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) by the end of 2030, in a scenario of a Federal Senate with a conservative majority. The task will require intense negotiation and the choice of names with a less polarizing profile, at the risk of further rejections in the House plenary. The first vacancy is already open, with the early retirement of Luís Roberto Barroso in 2025.
The scenario is complicated from February 2027, when the opposition, led by the PL, will take over the largest seat in the Senate, with 29 seats. The command of the House is fundamental, as it holds control of the calendar of the saddlebags and of the votes in the plenary. To approve a minister of STF, it takes 41 votes in secret, which forces the Plateau Palace to seek support beyond its base.
Strengthened opposition imposes barrier to indications
With the strengthening of the PL, which will have 29 seats from 2027, the Palácio do Planalto will need an intense political articulation and names of less polarizing profile to avoid further rejections in the plenary of the House. The biggest barrier will be the new composition of the House from February 2027, when the opposition, led by the PL, will have the largest bench. This scenario reduces the government’s room for manoeuvre and increases the bargaining power of independent senators.
Recent experience serves as a warning. After the historic rejection of Jorge Messias in 2026, it became clear that names with strong ideological profiles or close ties to the PT will face organized resistance. The episode highlighted that the governmental base is not sufficient to secure approvals, and that each nomination will be an individual battle in the plenary.
Four jobs by 2030 require strategy
Until the end of his term in 2030, Lula will be able to nominate four ministers. The first vacancy arose with the early retirement of Luís Roberto Barroso in 2025. The other three will occur by mandatory retirement, which is when the magistrate reaches the age limit of 75 years. These are: Luiz Fux in 2028, Cármen Lúcia in 2029 and Gilmar Mendes in 2030.
If the PT can approve all its elected representatives, it will have nominated eight of the eleven members of the Court, considering the previous appointments of Dilma Rousseff, which increases the pressure of the Senate by a rigorous filter. This perspective worries the opposition and reinforces the need for more careful scrutiny in the saddlebags, making the process even more complex for the Executive.
Negotiation on a case-by-case basis and political concessions
The government will need to negotiate each vacancy individually, offering concessions such as parliamentary amendments or positions in agencies to win the support of less-aligned senators. The secret ballot, while protecting the independence of parliamentarians, also makes it difficult to predict results and requires a deeper work of conviction. Each nomination will require a detailed mapping of the preferences and interests of senators.
In addition, the calendar of the shoe will be an instrument of pressure in the hands of the opposition. The command of the Senate can accelerate or delay the analysis of the nominees, influencing the political attrition of the government. Lula’s strategy, therefore, will need to combine timing, choice of names with less rejection and offer of counterparts to ensure the necessary approvals.
Impact on the Court's balance
The possibility of the PT nominating most of the ministers of the STF is not only a numerical issue, but also a symbolic one. The Court has a central role in decisions on sensitive issues such as fundamental rights, economic issues and political disputes. A more government-aligned composition could influence relevant trials in the coming years, which explains the opposition’s resistance to passing names without strict scrutiny.
However, the tradition of independence of the judiciary and the lifetime of the positions mean that the nominations do not guarantee automatic alignment. Still, the Senate tends to assess the ideological profile and trajectory of the magnifying glass candidates, especially after the rejection of Messiah, which has become a milestone in the relationship between Executive and Legislative.
Next steps and expectations
The first nomination, for the Barroso vacancy, will be a crucial test for the government’s articulation capacity. The name chosen will need to balance technical qualification, acceptance in the legal environment and low political rejection. The outcome of this process will set the tone for the other indications, which will occur in an even more hostile environment, with the opposition strengthened from 2027.
The Palácio do Planalto has not yet released an official list of candidates, and the source has not detailed possible names under negotiation. The expectation is that Lula will opt for moderate profiles, capable of attracting votes from independent senators and even from part of the opposition. The success or failure of these indications will have a direct impact on governance and the relationship between the Powers in the coming years.
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