Lula will have Congress with opposition majority in 4th term

In a historic turn, Lula wins Flávio Bolsonaro and will be president for the 4th time. The PT, however, will find a much more challenging Congress starting in 2027, with the growth of the PL, the party of the defeated candidate, imposing difficulties for governability.

The fact that the center parties supported Flávio in the second round, after the bolsonarist candidate left the first round ahead of Lula, can also hinder the advancement of proposals of the winning plate in the presidential elections.

Strong opposition in Congress

PP, União Brasil, Republicans, Podemos and Novo declared support for Flavio. Together, they have 245 deputies and 51 senators. Part of the MDB also supported the bolsonarist politician, although politicians from the North and Northeast sided with Lula.

Among the issues for which Lula must seek support is the Proposal for Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) for free passage in public transport. Promise of the final straight of campaign, the exemption will only advance if Lula gets support from Congress.

Articulations to maintain the power of agenda

In recent months, the president has managed to reconnect with the Speakers of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicans-PB), and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP). With this, the president obtained a series of legislative victories, such as the approval of the end of the blouse rate and the forgiveness of the debt of the MEIs (Individual Microentrepreneurs).

In 2027, both Motta and Alcolumbre will be able to contest re-election as heads of their respective legislative houses. The objective is to maintain the power of agenda, that is, to define what is or is not voted on in Congress and to detain the ambitions of the PL, which has already indicated that it wants control of both the House and the Senate.

Early Dispute by Congress Command

Elections for the presidency of the House and Senate will be held in February 2027, at the beginning of the new Legislature, when the deputies and senators elected in 2026 will take office. Despite this, the articulations on the subject have already begun in Brasilia.

The dispute was advanced by the PL itself. During the campaign, the party of Flávio Bolsonaro spoke of electing a large number of parliamentarians to ensure the command of the Congress. The statements, however, were not well received by the Center, which lost seats in Congress exactly to the PL.

Motta seeks support against the PL

Thus, Motta and Alcolumbre already articulate their stays in their respective positions. In the House, Motta sought support from center and left parties against the 121 MPs of the PL – the largest party’s bench since the Constituent Assembly.

The current president of the House has already won the support of 10 Centrão parties, three from the left (PDT, PSB and PV) and the indication that the PT will join him. With the maneuver, the PL is still at risk of running out of key positions in the House, such as the command of the Constitution and Justice Committee, the most important of the deputies, as well as space on the table in a possible victory of Motta. The party of Flavio will have to negotiate with the Center.

The Senate is a priority for the PL

In the Senate, the situation is more complex. The House is considered a priority for the PL, mainly because it is the senators who are responsible for opening impeachment proceedings against ministers of the Supremo Tribunal Federal. But it is not enough to have votes to remove a minister if the process is not even open – power that, by the regiment, belongs to the president of the Senate.

But senators have already indicated that the PL was too quick to indicate this intention and, in the evaluation of parliamentarians, left the first round thinking that the dispute for the command of the Congress was already won.

Alcolumbre articula reelection

As the G1 showed, Alcolumbre has already articulated his re-election to remain in office as president of the Senate and of the Congresso Nacional – that is, head of Power. Alcolumbre’s main strategy is to split the votes in the PL itself. Despite having a bench of almost 30 parliamentarians, some of these senators are part of the political group of Alcolumbre, such as Senator Eduardo Gomes (PL-TO), vice-president of the Senate.

With a fragmented Congress and a strengthened opposition, Lula will have to sew agreements and give in to guidelines to ensure the approval of his projects. The development of the negotiations in the coming months will be decisive for the success of the fourth term of the petista.

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