Lula wins in Oceania, but Flávio leads votes abroad
The president Lula received 4,796 votes in Australia and New Zealand, against 2,643 from Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a Metrópoles survey with TSE bulletins. Despite the victory in Oceania, Flávio leads the total sum of votes abroad, driven by Japan.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) received 4,796 votes in Australia and New Zealand, against 2,643 from Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to a survey carried out by Metropolis based on ballot papers provided by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The figures are part of the counting of the 2026 presidential elections abroad, which involve nearly 1 million Brazilian voters able to vote in 186 cities in 134 countries.
Despite Lula’s advantage in Oceania, the global scenario shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead in the sum of the votes of different nations. The difference between the number of countries won and the total number of votes is because the Brazilian electorate is not evenly distributed throughout the world, and countries with larger Brazilian communities have greater weight in the final sum.
Lula's Advantage in Oceania
In Australia, after Lula and Flavio, the candidates with the highest vote were Augusto Cury, with 331 votes, and Renan Santos, with 316. Romeu Zema received 139 votes and Ronaldo Caiado received 121. In New Zealand, Renan Santos got 13 votes, Zema got seven, Augusto Cury got six and Caiado got five. Samara recorded two votes and Hertz Days, one.
The survey considers the ballot boxes of Canberra, Sydney and Wellington, cities that concentrate Brazilian voting in the region. Lula’s victory in those places reflects a trend observed in other countries, such as China, Saudi Arabia and Finland, where the PT also won the majority of the votes.
Flávio leads abroad
Although Lula has won in more countries, Flávio Bolsonaro appears ahead in the sum of the votes of different nations. The senator’s advantage in the total of votes abroad is boosted by the result in Japan, one of the largest electoral colleges in Brazil outside the country. The senator won in the country, while Lula won the majority in other nations.
Flavio also appears in front in Israel, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates, places with significant Brazilian communities. These results, added to the performance in Japan, contribute to Flavio’s global leadership abroad, even with fewer countries conquered.
Unequal distribution of the electorate
The difference between the number of countries won and the total number of votes is because the Brazilian electorate is not evenly distributed throughout the world. Countries with larger Brazilian communities have greater weight in the final sum. The majority of voters are concentrated in countries such as Estados Unidos, Portugal and Japan.
Therefore, the results of large electoral colleges can significantly change the sum of the votes, even when a candidate wins in a larger number of countries. In the case of Oceania, Lula’s victory in Australia and New Zealand was not enough to reverse Flavio’s advantage in other regions with higher voter density.
Official counting
The official counting of votes abroad will be published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) after 5 p.m., in Brasília time, as it happens with the vote held in Brazil. Until then, the data collected by the report are partial and based on the ballot papers made available by TSE.
The final result abroad may influence the electoral scenario, but it is important to remember that the vote abroad represents a fraction of the total electorate. Still, the performance of candidates outside the country is a thermometer of support among Brazilians living abroad.
For more information on elections and real-time counting, continue to follow the Boca no Trombone Portal.
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