Merz suffers electoral defeats and faces pressure

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is preparing on Monday to try to convince the country that it still has the capacity to govern after suffering, on the eve, significant defeats in regional elections for the far right and radical left.

Its conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was left out of the regional assembly of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania in the northeast of the country for not reaching even 5% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won the region with 38 percent of the vote, although a left-wing alliance appears to be in a better position to form a government.

Serial defeats shake Merz's lead

In Berlin, the radical left Die Linke led with 25% of the vote, ahead of the CDU, which got 20%. The AfD also had an expressive vote, with 15%. The two defeats add to what the AfD suffered on September 6 in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, which has sparked speculation about a possible early departure of the chancellor.

On Sunday night, Merz tried to end discussions about his political future by claiming he remains as "CDU president" and "chancellor". He promised to continue with his reform agenda to reactivate an economy stagnant due to lack of innovation, Chinese competition and the rise in energy prices caused by the wars in Ukraine and in the Oriente Médio.

Restricted reforms and record rejection

But the implementation of these reforms is hindered by divergences with its coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and internal disputes in the CDU. On Monday, Merz is expected to discuss with his party leadership the "disaster", as he himself defined it, suffered in Mecklenburg. The 70-year-old chancellor, who has only 16 months in power, faces a 90 percent rejection in polls.

The rejection of other parties to the AfD, sympathetic to the president of the Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, and the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, makes it difficult to form alliances to govern the states where the party won. The chancellor insisted on Sunday that his reforms are "the antidote to the poison of authoritarianism", in a reference to the AfD, accused of collusion with neo-Nazi sectors.

AfD leads national surveys

Merz often highlights his government’s successes in the area of migration, but, so far, voters who have gone on to support the AfD have not returned to the CDU. On the contrary, the AfD leads the national polls with about 30% of the voting intentions, about 10 points ahead of the CDU, and its leaders claim to be "the main political force" of Germany.

Another difficulty for Merz will be to reach an agreement on a working agenda with his social-democratic allies, also very unpopular. Relations between the two parties are difficult in this marriage of convenience formed to govern after the legislative elections of 2025.

Attempt to consolidate position

The statement on German public television, unusual in regional elections, was intended to consolidate its position, political scientist Oliver Lembcke told AFP. It is an attempt to “govern on the defensive, to prevent a debate about your person from being triggered.”

The German political landscape remains uncertain, with the chancellor seeking to reaffirm his leadership amid growing opposition and popular dissatisfaction. Merz’s next steps will be decisive for the future of his government and the CDU.

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