Pesquisa Gerp: Flávio Bolsonaro has 44% and Lula 42%

The Gerp Institute on Tuesday released a new poll with the intentions of voting for President of the Republic in the 2026 elections. The survey, commissioned by the institute itself, heard 2,400 people between September 24 and 28, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95.55%.

In the first round scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) adds 44% of the voting intentions, against 42% of Lula (PT), setting up a technical tie. This scenario takes into account valid votes, which exclude null, white and undecided. The figures exacerbate the presidential dispute and indicate a scenario of consolidated polarization.

Technical tie in the first round

The difference of two percentage points between the two main candidates is within the margin of error of the survey. This means that, statistically, both can be tied in the electorate’s preference. The survey did not detail the distribution of blank, null and undecided votes, only reported that they were excluded from the calculation of valid votes.

In addition to the two leaders, the veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat) appears with 0% of the voting intentions. The source did not detail whether other candidates were tested in the scenario. The Gerp Institute also did not disclose the rejection rate of the presidential candidates in this survey.

The technical tie reflects the stability of the electoral scenario, without major oscillations in relation to previous surveys. The People’s Gazette has published for years all the polls of intention to vote conducted by the main public opinion institutes of the country.

Second round: 7 points advantage

In the second-round simulation between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, the PL candidate opens up 7 percentage points of advantage to the petista. The Gerp Institute simulated a second-round scenario, in total votes. The survey did not specify the exact percentages of each candidate in this scenario, only the difference between them.

This 7-point advantage is outside the margin of error, which indicates a statistically significant lead for Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round. However, it is important to note that the second-round scenario may change until the election date, depending on factors such as political alliances, debate performance and campaign events.

Voting intention surveys make a reading for the time being, based on representative samples of the population. Therefore, the current numbers do not guarantee the final result of the 2026 elections.

Research methodology and registration

The survey was conducted by the Gerp Institute, with 2,400 interviewees, between September 24 and 28, 2026. The survey was contracted by the institute itself, which is allowed by electoral legislation, provided it is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The registration on TSE is the number BR-03929/2026.

The confidence level of the survey is 95.55%, and the margin of error is 2 percentage points. This means that if the search were repeated 100 times, in 95.55 of them the results would be within the margin of error. The source did not detail the interview methods, composition and sample number, nor the way in which the questions were asked.

Interview methods, composition and sample number and even the way a question is asked are factors that can influence the outcome. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the methodologies information found at the end of the Gazeta do Povo articles on election polls.

Importance of Election Surveys

Voting intention surveys are important tools to understand the political landscape at a given time. They help measure candidate popularity, identify trends, and guide campaign strategies. However, it is essential to interpret the results with caution, considering the margin of error and the methodology used.

In the case of the Gerp poll, the technical tie in the first round indicates that the dispute is close. The 7-point lead in the second round suggests that Flávio Bolsonaro may have an advantage in a possible direct confrontation with Lula. This data is relevant to voters, who can use the information to make informed decisions.

The People’s Gazette has published for years all the polls of intention to vote conducted by the main public opinion institutes of the country. The portal maintains a commitment to transparency and the disclosure of reliable data to its readers.

Political context and next steps

The elections of 2026 will be a decisive moment for Brazil. With the polarization between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula, the political scenario remains divided. The Gerp survey shows that the dispute is far from settled, with both candidates in a position to win.

The coming months will be crucial for the definition of the electoral framework. Party alliances, debates, electoral propaganda and campaign events can influence voting intentions. In addition, the economy and the national political conjuncture will also have an impact on voters’ decision.

The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to monitor election polls and bring up-to-date information on the political landscape. Keep an eye out for upcoming publications so you don’t miss out on any news about the 2026 elections.

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