Quaest: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tie at 41%

The new Quaest poll for president, released on September 7, shows President Lula in the lead of the first round, with 36% of voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro comes in second, with 29%. The survey heard voters across the country and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points for more or less.

In comparison to the previous poll, of September 2, Lula oscillated within the margin of error. Flávio Bolsonaro also did not show significant variation. The scenario indicates stability in the presidential dispute.

Augusto Cury falls to 8%

The writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury appears in third place, with 8% of voting intentions. In the September 2 survey, he had 10%. The drop of 2 percentage points is at the margin of error limit.

The other candidates add up to 9% of the voting intentions. The undecided represent 10% of the electorate. Another 8% say they want to vote blank, annul or not attend the polls.

Second round has a technical draw

In the second-round simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the two appear tied with 41% of the voting intentions. In the previous survey, Lula had 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 41%. The President’s negative oscillation was 1 percentage point.

In this scenario, 5% of voters are undecided. Another 13% say they would vote blank, annul or not vote. The technical tie reflects the polarization of the electorate.

Political identity defines the vote

The tie between the two main candidates is evident in the analysis by political identity. Among those who identify as Lulistas, 96% intend to vote for Lula. Among those who consider themselves left-wing, 89% have the same intention.

On the other hand, 98% of the bolsonaristas and 86% of those who identify with the right declare a vote in Flávio Bolsonaro. Among the independents, there is a tie. The numbers show that the dispute focuses on mobilizing the bases.

Rejection and voting potential

The rates of knowledge, voting potential and rejection also indicate balance. Lula has a voting potential of 44% and rejection of 53%. Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 55% and has 40% voting potential. All the numbers are within the margin of error.

Fear of the two scenarios is also tied: 43% say they are afraid of the Bolsonaro family returning to power, and 43% say they are afraid of the continuity of the Lula government. The source did not detail the specific margin of error for this question.

Generational difference in fear

One thing that attracts attention is the generational difference. Young people are increasingly afraid of the continuity of the Lula government. The 60-year-old or older voter is more afraid of the Bolsonaro family returning to power. The source did not detail the percentages by age group.

This age division can influence campaign strategies. Candidates should direct specific messages to each group.

Government disapproval grows

What seems to weigh against Lula’s candidacy is the government’s disapproval rate, which reaches 50%. From July onwards, unlike what happened with other governments in the same period, the approval of the president has a tendency to worsen.

The negative trend in disapproval appears in the Northeast, where it rose from 29% to 35%, and in the Southeast, from 50% to 56%. The source did not detail the numbers from other regions.

The Quaest survey was conducted between September 5 and 7. The survey heard 2,000 voters in 120 municipalities. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.

The electoral scenario remains undefined, with a technical draw in the second round and high rejection of the two main candidates. The next surveys should indicate whether the tendency of disapproval of the Lula government is consolidated and how this affects the dispute.

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