Quaest Senado TO: Eduardo Gomes leads with 18%
Poll released on Wednesday (23) shows Eduardo Gomes with 18% of the intention to vote for the Senate in Tocantins, followed by Gaguim with 16%. The survey interviewed 804 people and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
The dispute for the Senate in Tocantins gained new contours with the disclosure of the Quaest survey on Wednesday (23). The survey, commissioned by TV Anhanguera, shows Eduardo Gomes with 18% of the voting intentions, closely followed by Gaguim, who registers 16%. Alexandre Guimarães with 11% and Eli Borges with 8%.
The numbers reflect the sum of the mentions for the first and second seats, in a scenario in which each voter must choose two different candidates. In 2026, two senators will be elected per state and by the Federal District, renewing 54 of the 81 seats of the House. Double voting is compulsory and it is not allowed to repeat the same name.
Methodology and research scenario
Quaest listened to 804 people aged 16 or older between September 19 and 22. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%. The registration on TSE is TO-00781/2026 and BR-00781/2026.
In the spontaneous survey, when the names are not presented, 69% of the respondents declared themselves undecided, a decline from 86% registered on August 25. This data indicates an increase in the knowledge of the candidates, but there is still a long way to the definition of the electorate.
Intention of voting stimulated
In the stimulated research, the list of candidates is shown and each interviewee responds twice: for the first and for the second vacancy. The results consider the mentions for both vacancies in a total that adds 100% of the voting intentions, maintaining the ratio between candidates, whites/nulls and undecided.
In addition to the leaders, the survey details the percentages for the first and second vacancies separately. However, the source did not detail the individual numbers of each candidate in that division. Still, the general scenario points to Eduardo Gomes ahead, with Gaguim in second and a fierce dispute for third position.
Certainty of Vote and Rejection
For 69% of the voters heard, the choice of the candidate is definitive — a jump from 47% on August 25. Another 31% say they can still change the vote until the elections, scheduled for October 4. This increase in conviction suggests a more consolidated electorate, although there is still room for upheaval.
Quaest also measured the rejection of candidates. The most cited in the question "knows and would not vote" are Gaguim (Union), with 37%, and Paulo Mourão (PT), with 32%. These indices can influence the campaign strategy on the final line.
Regional context and impact
Tocantins will have a relevant role in the renewal of the Senate in 2026, with two seats at stake. The local dispute reflects a scenario of fragmentation, with several viable candidates and an electorate still in the process of defining. The Quaest survey serves as a portrait of the moment, but the scenario may change until the vote.
For voters in the state, the choice of senators will have a direct impact on federal representation and the definition of public policies. Follow-up on upcoming research and debates among candidates will be critical to an informed decision.
The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to follow the campaign in Tocantins and throughout the country, bringing analysis and updates as new data is released.
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