Real Time Big Data Poll Shows Second Round Scenario

The Real Time Big Data Institute released the results of its latest poll of intent to vote for the second round of the presidential elections this week. The survey, commissioned by the institute itself, heard 2,000 voters between October 15 and 19, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%, and the registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is BR-02952/2026.

The survey presents two scenarios for the second round: the spontaneous one, in which the names of the candidates are not shown previously to the voter, and the stimulated one, when the list of competitors is presented before the answer. The results are published in total votes and valid votes, following the standard of the institute.

Compared to the last survey before the first round

In the last Real Time Big Data poll before the first round, published on October 1, Lula appeared with 46% of the valid vote intentions, while Flávio registered 41%, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. In the polls, however, the result was different: Flavio received 47.03% of the valid votes, and Lula, 45.16%.

This difference between the survey and the official result is a reminder that surveys of voting intention are portraits of the moment, subject to variations. The Gazeta do Povo itself, which has been publishing research from the main institutes in the country for years, points out that interview methods, sample composition and even the way the question is asked can influence the numbers.

Methodology and registration in TSE

The current survey was conducted with 2,000 interviewees, between October 15 and 19, 2026, and contracted by Real Time Big Data itself. The confidence level is 95%, and the margin of error is 2 percentage points for more or less. The registration on TSE is BR-02952/2026.

It is worth noting that the institute also conducted a previous survey, between September 26 and 30, 2026, with the same number of interviewees and margin of error, registered under the number BR-09503/2026. This sequence of surveys allows you to follow the evolution of voting intentions throughout the campaign.

Importance of reading the methodology

When analyzing electoral surveys, it is essential to observe methodological information, such as number of respondents, margin of error and way of collecting data. The Gazeta do Povo, for example, includes these details at the end of its articles on the subject, precisely so that the reader can evaluate the reliability of the numbers.

In addition, it is necessary to remember that polls of voting intention make a reading for the moment, based on representative samples of the population. Therefore, the results may change until the date of the election, especially in a second-round scenario, when the dispute tends to intensify.

What to expect from the second round

With the spread of spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, the voter has more elements to understand the electoral framework. However, the source did not detail the exact percentages of each candidate in these scenarios, limiting itself to informing that both were presented.

For the next few days, new surveys are likely to be released, allowing for more accurate comparisons. The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to monitor the research and will bring updates as soon as they are published, always with transparency and journalistic rigor.

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