Research by BTG/Nexus shows tight second round: Lula ties with Flávio, Caiado and Cury

The new Nexus/BTG poll on the 2026 presidential election shows a scenario of strong balance in possible second-round disputes. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears technically tied with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) and Augusto Cury (Avante), while maintaining a more comfortable lead over Romeu Zema (New) and Renan Santos (Mission).

The survey heard 2,002 voters between September 4 and 7. The margin of error is two percentage points to more or less, with a confidence level of 95%. The most striking result is the confrontation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The senator registers 46% of the voting intentions, against 45% of the current president.

The difference of only one percentage point is within the margin of error and therefore sets up a technical tie. Still, the result puts Flavio numerically ahead of Lula and reinforces the scenario of tight dispute by the Presidency. In this confrontation, 8% of the respondents stated that they would vote blank, null or on any of the candidates, while 1% did not know or did not respond.

Cury also appears numerically ahead of Lula

Another highlight data involves Augusto Cury. For the first time, Nexus tested a direct confrontation between the writer and Lula in the second round. Cury appears with 45%, while the president registers 43%. The two-point difference is also within the margin of error, characterizing a technical draw.

In this scenario, 10% said they would vote white, zero or neither, while 1% could not answer. The performance draws attention because it puts Cury in a competitive condition in a possible second round, at least within the photograph presented by the survey.

Caiado is three points behind

Against Ronaldo Caiado, Lula appears numerically ahead, but again without enough advantage to push away the technical tie. The president registers 46%, against 43% of the former governor of Goiás. Another 10% would vote white, zero or on none of the candidates and 1% could not answer.

The set of three scenarios shows that Lula faces a rather tight dispute when confronted directly with Flávio Bolsonaro, Augusto Cury or Ronaldo Caiado.

Lula opens advantage against Zema and Renan

The situation changes in the simulations involving Romeu Zema and Renan Santos. Against Zema, Lula reaches 47%, while the candidate of the Novo registers 40%. White, null or neither account for 11%, and 2% were unable to respond.

In the dispute against Renan Santos, Lula also appears with 47%, in front of 39% of the candidate of the Mission. In this scenario, 13% would choose white, null or none of the names, while 1% did not respond.

What the numbers show

The main reading of the research is less in those who appear one or two points numerically ahead and more in the degree of competitiveness of possible confrontations. Since the margin of error is two percentage points, it is not correct to say that Flávio Bolsonaro or Augusto Cury are statistically winning Lula. The numbers indicate a technical tie.

At the same time, the survey shows that the current president’s advantage is not uniform against all opponents. While Lula opens seven and eight points over Zema and Renan, respectively, the distance drops to three points in front of Caiado, two in front of Cury and only one against Flavio.

Thus, the photograph presented by Nexus/BTG points to a competitive election and a potentially tight second round depending on who reaches the final contest.

Methodology

The Nexus survey was contracted by BTG Pactual Bank and interviewed 2,002 voters by phone between September 4 and 7, 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, for more or less, and the level of confidence is 95%. The survey is registered in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-06790/2026.