Right advances in Latin America and echoes in Brazil

The rise of right-wing, center-right, or far-right leaders in seven South American countries — Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Peru — reignites the debate over the possible reflections of this scenario in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Together, these countries represent about 58.3% of the South American population, according to data cited by Professor Regiane Bressan, of the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp).

The conservative advancement in the region is linked to the exhaustion of the capacity of traditional governments to respond to social and economic demands.

The end of the commodities cycle, which benefited countries like Brazil and Venezuela at the beginning of the century, reduced the ability of governments to promote growth and income redistribution. The scenario was aggravated by the pandemic and a process of deindustrialization in part of the region. The result, the professor assesses, was a crisis of representativeness of traditional parties, considered unable to offer answers to economic stagnation.

Public safety gains centrality in the debate

At the same time, violence has become central to the political debate. “What is counting the most, therefore, in Latin America in general, is the rates of violence. So, urban violence,” says Bressan. The agenda of public security and the fight against organized crime has gained strength and propelled leaders like Bukele in El Salvador and Noboa in Ecuador.

“The issue of the securitization of public order, the question of security and the fight against crime” are, according to her, some of the guidelines with the greatest potential for repercussion in Brazil. The teacher emphasizes, however, that the influence does not occur by simply transferring the electorate from one country to another. “The direct influence of the neighbors’ lawsuits has a very limited scope,” he says.

Indirect Influence and Legitimation of Discourse

“There is no such direct influence, but I could say that the influence will happen insofar as there is legitimization of the discourse,” explains Bressan. In other words, the success of conservative experiments in the region can make similar proposals more acceptable in Brazil, without an automatic importation of models.

In Bolivia, for example, the election of Rodrigo Paz in 2025 represented a break with almost two decades of dominance of the Movement to Socialism (MAS), but it did not necessarily reproduce the same conservative turn observed in other countries. “There are forces within the territory that are subordinated to our macroeconomic conjuncture, legislative governability and the very ability to attract the most moderate electoral extracts,” says the professor.

Internal conditions define the Brazilian scenario

The existence of comprehensive income transfer programs also gives Brazilian governments greater resilience, according to the teacher. This means that, despite the favorable regional context on the right, Brazil has its own characteristics that can modulate the impact of these trends.

In 2026, security, the economy and conservative values may gain strength with the backing of regional experiences, but the outcome will depend, above all, on domestic political and economic conditions. Bressan’s analysis suggests that the Brazilian electorate will be influenced more by the national conjuncture than by a domino effect coming from neighbors.

For the reader of Ponta Grossa and Campos Gerais, the debate on public safety and economics tends to gain even more relevance in the coming months as candidates position themselves on these topics. The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to follow the developments of the regional political scenario and its possible reflections on Paraná and in Brazil.

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