Sandro Alex gains 5 points in a month and narrows gap with Moro

The new Real Time Big Data survey on the Paraná government dispute shows a change in the voting intentions recorded by the institute over the past month. The candidate Sandro Alex (PSD) went from 22% to 27%, while Sergio Moro (PL) ranged from 37% to 35%. The difference between the two, which was 15 percentage points in August, fell to eight percentage points in the survey released on Monday (21).

The growth of Sandro Alex was five percentage points compared to the August 18 survey. Requião Filho (PDT), in turn, went from 20% to 22% in the same period. Despite the changes, Moro maintains the highest percentage of voting intentions in the stimulated scenario presented by the institute.

The results also draw attention when compared to the numbers of other institutes. In the Paraná Pesquisas survey, published last Friday (18), Moro appeared with 44.7%, Requião Filho with 23% and Sandro Alex with 19.7%. The difference between the surveys is especially noticeable in the percentages of Moro and Sandro Alex and in the position occupied by the candidates of the PSD and the PDT.

Although the numbers differ, each survey uses its own sample and methodology. The comparison, in isolation, does not prove irregularities or lack of reliability of the research.

Sandro Alex grows five points in a month

The evolution of the numbers of the Real Time Big Data allows to observe the changes in the voting intentions of the main candidates for the Government of the Paraná. In the survey released on August 18, Sergio Moro had 37%, Sandro Alex appeared with 22% and Requião Filho registered 20%. The difference between Moro and Sandro was 15 percentage points.

Ten days later, on August 28, a new survey from the same institute showed Moro with 35%, Sandro Alex with 23% and Requião Filho with 20%. The distance between the first two had decreased to 12 percentage points.

In the survey released on September 10, Sandro Alex reached 25%, while Moro remained at 35%. The difference fell to ten percentage points. Now, in the poll released on Monday (21), the PSD candidate appears with 27%, against 35% of Moro and 22% of Requião Filho.

Check out the evolution recorded in the Real Time Big Data surveys:

Date of disclosure

Sergio Moro

Sandro Alex

Requião Filho

Difference between Moro and Sandro

August 18

37%

22%

20 %

15 points

August 28

35%

23%

20 %

12 points

10 September

35%

25 %

21%

10 points

21 September

35%

27%

22%

8 points

The results show a sequence of positive oscillations for Sandro Alex in the institute’s researches. However, it is necessary to consider the margin of error and the different samples used in each survey. The sequence of numbers, by itself, does not demonstrate that all movements correspond to statistically significant changes in the electorate.

Difference between institutes draws attention: why are the numbers so different?

One of the aspects that deserve attention is the difference between the results of Real Time Big Data and those of other surveys carried out on the Paraná. In the Paraná Pesquisas survey, published on September 18, Sergio Moro appeared with 44.7%, Requião Filho with 23% and Sandro Alex with 19.7%.

In the Real Time Big Data survey released on Monday (21), the percentages were 35% for Moro, 27% for Sandro Alex and 22% for Requião Filho. The comparison reveals important differences:

Sergio Moro recorded 9.7 percentage points more in the Paraná Pesquisas than in the Real Time Big Data.

Sandro Alex presents a percentage 7.3 points higher in Real Time Big Data than in Paraná Pesquisas.

Requião Filho presents a difference of only one percentage point between the two surveys.

The difference between the percentages is also reflected in the distance between the candidates. While Real Time Big Data records eight percentage points between Moro and Sandro Alex, Paraná Pesquisas presents a 25 percentage point difference between the two.

But how can two surveys conducted in the near future show such different results?

The surveys use their own methodologies, samples and collection periods. Real Time Big Data listened to 1,600 voters between September 11 and 15, while Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,280 people between September 15 and 17. The first survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, while the second has a margin of 2.8 percentage points. Both report a 95% confidence level.

Differences in results should not be ignored, but also do not constitute, in isolation, evidence of manipulation. The comparison between the institutes allows to identify divergences in the percentages measured, but not to determine which survey most accurately represents the voters' intention.

For a more in-depth evaluation, it would be necessary to examine the sampling procedures, collection, weighting and presentation of the results of each research.

Second round between Moro and Sandro Alex presents a four-point difference

Another data of the new survey involves a possible second-round dispute between Sergio Moro and Sandro Alex. According to Real Time Big Data, Moro registers 42% of the voting intentions, while Sandro appears with 38%. The difference between the two candidates is four percentage points.

In this scenario, 10% of the respondents declared a blank or null vote, while another 10% did not know or did not respond. The four-point distance is the sum of the two-percentage margins assigned to the individual results.

The institute also presented two other second-round simulations. In a dispute between Moro and Requião Filho, the PL candidate appears with 52%, against 30% of the PDT candidate. In a scenario between Sandro Alex and Requião Filho, the PSD candidate registers 42%, while the opponent appears with 31%.

The simulations represent responses to hypothetical scenarios presented to the interviewees and do not constitute a prediction about which candidates will compete in the second round or what will be the result of the election.

Approval of Ratinho Junior reaches 80%, but Sandro Alex has 27%

The new research also presents data on the evaluation of the current governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), Sandro Alex’s main political ally. According to Real Time Big Data, 80% of respondents approve the state administration, while 18% disapprove and 2% did not know or did not respond.

In the government’s detailed assessment, 59% consider the administration to be good or good, 30% rate it as regular and 11% rate it as bad or bad. The contrast between the two indicators draws attention: Ratinho Junior registers 80% of approval, while Sandro Alex appears with 27% of voting intentions.

Last week, Ratinho Junior announced a license from the position to participate directly in its ally’s campaign. During the period, Deputy Governor Darci Piana assumes command of the state Executive. The difference between government approval and voting intention, however, does not allow to conclude how many voters satisfied with the current administration intend to vote in Sandro Alex, Moro or Requião Filho.

The survey published by Real Time Big Data does not present a specific cross between the evaluation of the state government and the electoral preference of each interviewee. Thus, the data do not allow us to determine if the participation of Ratinho Junior in the campaign contributed to the oscillations recorded in the voting intentions of Sandro Alex.

Spontaneous survey shows 41% without indicating candidate

In the spontaneous survey, when respondents need to nominate a candidate without receiving a list of names, Sergio Moro appears with 20% of the voting intentions. Sandro Alex registers 14%, while Requião Filho is cited by 12% of participants.

Ratinho Junior, which does not contest re-election, was mentioned by 2% of respondents. Other names amounted to 3% and white and null votes accounted for 8%. The percentage of respondents who did not know or did not answer the spontaneous question reached 41%.

This result contrasts with the stimulated research, in which only 8% did not know or did not respond. The difference shows that part of the respondents indicates a preference when they receive a list of candidates, but does not spontaneously mention a name.

The percentage of spontaneous responses without nomination of candidate, however, should not be interpreted automatically as the number of undecided voters, since the stimulated survey presents a significantly lower proportion of people without an answer.

Rejection of Moro, Sandro Alex and Requião Filho

The survey also measured the rejection of Paraná candidates for government. Requião Filho appears with 42% rejection, followed by Sergio Moro, with 39%, and Sandro Alex, with 30%. Luiz France registers 27%, while Tayná Miessa and Alexandre Salomão appear with 23% each. Adriano Teixeira has 20% and Samuel de Mattos, 19%.

These percentages represent respondents’ answers to the question on which candidates they would not vote for. The rejection and intent voter ratings measure different aspects of electoral behavior and, in isolation, do not allow determining the outcome of the dispute.

What does the data allow to conclude about the dispute in the Paraná?

The comparison between the Real Time Big Data surveys shows that Sandro Alex went from 22% in August to 27% in September, while Sergio Moro moved from 37% to 35%. The gap between the two candidates fell from 15 to eight percentage points in that interval. Requião Filho went from 20% to 22%.

The results of Paraná Pesquisas, on the other hand, present different percentages for the same candidates, especially in the case of Moro and Sandro Alex. The data show that the institutes recorded different portraits of the voting intentions of Paraná voters in September.

The existence of divergences does not prove irregularities, nor does the sequence of positive oscillations recorded by a candidate guarantee the continuity of this movement until election day. The monitoring of new surveys, the analysis of the methodologies and the comparison of the results with the numbers effectively calculated in the polls will allow a more complete evaluation of the differences observed in the electoral polls.

Research methodology Real Time Big Data

The survey heard 1,600 Paraná voters between September 11 and 15, 2026. The reported margin of error is two percentage points, to more or to less, with a confidence level of 95%. The search is registered on Justiça Eleitoral under the number PR-00532/2026.

Read also: Moro leads dispute for the Government of Paraná and Sandro Alex tries to convert Mouse support into votes, for Gleidson Carlos

The report presents the date of September 16 as a reference for dissemination, and the results were reported nationally on Monday (21).