Second Turn Polls Indicate Technical Tie

On the eve of the second round of the presidential elections, all polls released show Flávio Bolsonaro leading numerically. However, in none of them he can open up an advantage beyond the margin of error, which sets up a technical tie between him and Lula. The surveys were carried out between 18 and 24 October 2026, by different institutes, and reinforce the indefiniteness of the elections.

The scenario of technical tie is repeated in all the institutes consulted. The fierce dispute keeps the electorate in suspense and indicates that the final result can be decided by a minimum margin of votes.

Numerical advantage, but within the margin

The closest that Flávio Bolsonaro gets to extrapolating the margin of error is in the Gerp survey, in which it has four percentage points of advantage for the petista, at the limit of the margin. On the other hand, the smallest advantage given to him appears in Future Intelligence, of 0.2 percentage point. These numbers show the oscillation within the confidence interval, without pointing to a clear favorite.

The data reinforce that although the candidate appears ahead in most surveys, the difference is not statistically significant. The election remains open, and any projection should consider the margin of error of each survey.

Methodology and scope of surveys

Among the institutes that published surveys, AtlasIntel interviewed 4,990 people between October 18 and 23, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point and a confidence level of 95%. The survey was contracted by the institute itself and registered in TSE under number BR-06380/2026.

The CNT/MDA listened to 2,032 voters from October 21 to 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The research was contracted by the National Transport Confederation and registered under the number BR-02136/2026. The Future Intelligence, in turn, interviewed 2,000 people on October 23 and 24, with a margin of 2.2 points and record BR-09726/2026.

Gerp conducted 2,400 interviews between October 21 and 24, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95.55%. The registration on TSE is the registration on BR-09327/2026. Nexus/BTG Pactual listened to 2,000 voters on October 23 and 24, with a margin of 2.2 points and record BR-08234/2026. Finally, Quaest interviewed 3,702 people in the same period, with a margin of 2 points and registration BR-09158/2026, hired by Editora Globo and by Globo Comunicação e Participações S.A.

These methodological data show that, despite the differences in sampling and collection period, all institutes point to a technical tie scenario, with small variations in the numerical advantage of Flávio Bolsonaro.

What to expect from the second round

With the margin of error as a determining factor, the result of the second turn remains unpredictable. The proximity between the candidates suggests that the election may be decided by a minimal difference in votes, which increases the expectation for the count.

For the elector, the scenario reinforces the importance of attending the polls and of considering the proposals of each candidate, since the dispute is far from being defined. The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to track the developments and will bring updates as new data is released.

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2026 poll: Flavio and Lula tied the day before

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