Thunderstorms and El Niño may affect crops and raise food prices in the region
Forecast of rainfall above average until December worries rural producers and may bring losses to the agribusiness, with effects on consumers' wallets
The advancement of the El Niño phenomenon has ignited a warning sign for the Paraná agribusiness. The forecast of above-average rainfall and possible extreme weather events in the coming months worries rural producers, who fear losses in crops and damage to property structures. In addition to the impacts in the field, the situation can provoke a rise in food prices and directly hit the pockets of consumers.
According to information released by the RIC portal on Wednesday (23), the Paraná Environmental Technology and Monitoring System (Simepar) forecasts above-average rainfall volumes in the state until December, with the possibility of storms and other severe phenomena.
The largest differences from the historical average are expected in the West, Southwest and Central-South regions during November. In December, the West band is expected to present the most expressive volumes.
Rainfall could affect agricultural production
The manager of the Technical and Economic Department of the FAEP System, Jefrey Kleine Albers, points to two main risks for rural producers in the face of the climate scenario.
The first involves the damage caused directly by the storms. Strong winds and other extreme phenomena can affect barracks, aviaries and electrical installations, causing material losses and losses of grain and animals.
The second risk is related to crops. Excess rain can leave the soil soaked, making it difficult for agricultural machinery to enter and preventing planting within the period considered appropriate.
If climatic conditions compromise the development of crops, the grain production of Paraná may be affected. The situation also worries producers who depend on financing to finance the crops. A possible production failure can make it difficult to pay off debts and compromise the continuity of activities.
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In this context, the representative of the FAEP System highlights the importance of rural insurance and public policies that offer financial support to farmers affected by climate events.
The price of food may increase
The possible impacts of El Niño should not be restricted to rural properties. According to the assessment of Jefrey Kleine Albers, a significant reduction in agricultural production can decrease the supply of products in the market and cause an increase in food prices.
The effect can reach different stages of the production chain, from producers to commercial establishments, reaching the final consumer. With a lower supply of certain products, prices can rise, contributing to increased inflation.
However, the cost of food is still a possibility associated with possible losses in production, and not a confirmed consequence of the climate phenomenon.
The Paraná crop still has good prospects
Despite concern over the coming months, the official estimates of agricultural production of the Paraná do not yet show significant changes. According to the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), linked to the State Secretariat for Agriculture and Supply, the planting of the first 2026/2027 crop had reached 43% of the 373,000 hectares projected in the survey released on September 15.
Of the total of implanted crops, 97% had good conditions. The National Supply Company (Conab) is working with an estimate of 44.17 million tons of grain for the Paraná in the 2026/2027 crop, a volume 0.18% higher than that recorded in the previous cycle.
The figures indicate that, so far, the possible losses associated with the El Niño have not yet caused significant changes in the state's production projections. The scenario, however, demands attention from rural producers, especially given the forecast of more intense rains during the coming months.
