AtlasIntel: Flávio leads Lula in the second round

The AtlasIntel institute released on Friday a new survey on the contest for president of the Republic in the 2026 elections. In the second round scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) registers 52.8% of the voting intentions, while Lula (PT) adds 47.2%. The numbers consider only valid votes, excluding blank, null and undecided.

The survey heard 5,026 interviewees between October 3 and 8, 2026. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, with a confidence level of 95%. The research was contracted by the institute itself and is registered in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-03663/2026.

Flavio's Advantage in the Stimulated Scenario

The AtlasIntel institute presented a stimulated scenario of the second round, in which the list with the names of the competitors is presented before the answer. In this format, Flávio Bolsonaro appears ahead of Lula, with a difference of 5.6 percentage points. The advantage of the candidate of the PL is consolidated after the first round, when the dispute was more intense.

In the last AtlasIntel poll before the 1st round, published on the eve of the vote (October 3), Lula appeared with 47% of the intentions of valid votes and Flávio registered 44.1%, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point. In the polls, Flavio received 47.03% of the valid votes; Lula 45.16%. The change in the electoral scenario is one of the main highlights of the new survey.

Indecisive and invalid votes

For this second round, 3.2% of the interviewees by AtlasIntel said they will vote null or white or that they have not yet defined the vote. This percentage is relatively low, indicating a more consolidated electorate around the two candidates. The second round takes place on October 25.

The previous survey, conducted between September 27 and October 2, heard 4,945 people and also had a margin of error of 1 percentage point, with registration in TSE under the number BR-00999/2026. The comparison between the two surveys shows a significant change in the scenario, with Flávio Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in voting intentions.

Methodology and electoral registration

The AtlasIntel institute detailed that the current research was contracted by the institute itself, without external funding. The confidence level is 95%, and the margin of error of 1 percentage point for more or less. The registration in the TSE under the number BR-03663/2026 guarantees the transparency and legality of the withdrawal.

The previous poll, released before the first round, had a BR-00999/2026 record and heard 4,945 voters. The difference in the number of respondents between the two polls is small, but the political landscape has changed considerably after the first round of voting.

What to Expect by the 25th

With the new survey, Flávio Bolsonaro takes the lead in the presidential race, but the 1 percentage point margin of error still leaves room for swings. The second round is scheduled for October 25, and candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns in the coming weeks.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to follow the unfolding of the presidential election and will bring new information as soon as it is released. Visit our website for more news on national and regional policy.

Read Also

We can officially support Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2nd round

Cury supports Flávio Bolsonaro, but will charge proposals

Durigan calls Flavio's fiscal adjustment a cheap illusion

Font

www.gazetadopovo.com