Electoral polls 2026 show fierce competition

The polls for President of the Republic released on Saturday (3) show a fierce dispute in the first round between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the 2026 elections. However, the petista generally has a small numerical advantage over the candidate of the PL. The surveys were carried out by six different institutes and reflect the scenario on the eve of the vote.

AtlasIntel, CNT/MDA, Datafolha, Gerp, Quaest and PoderData released surveys with stimulated scenarios of first round with valid votes, which exclude white, null and undecided. This is how the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) counts the results of the polls. Simultaneous disclosure allows comparing trends and evaluating the consistency of the numbers.

Technical ties predominate in lifting

Of these institutes, only Gerp shows Flavio numerically ahead of Lula: 46% to 44%. With the margin of error, however, they are tied technically. The difference of two percentage points is within the margin of error of the search, which is two percentage points for more or less.

The technical tie, by the way, is the situation that predominates in the surveys of the day before. Unlike Gerp, which shows Flavio at the front, the other institutes put the petista leading numerically. This leadership, however, is not statistically significant in most cases, which reinforces the indefiniteness of the ballot.

AtlasIntel and CNT/MDA point to advantage for Lula

The surveys for president of AtlasIntel and CNT/MDA are the only ones that extrapolate the margin of error and give advantage to Lula. This means that, in these two surveys, the difference in favor of the petista is greater than the margin of error, indicating a more consistent leadership. Still, the overall scenario remains competitive.

AtlasIntel heard 4,945 people between September 27 and October 2, 2026. The margin of error is 1 percentage point, with a confidence level of 95%. The CNT/MDA interviewed 2,007 voters in the same period, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points and 95% confidence.

Methodologies and records of research

Each institute adopted its own methodologies and different collection periods. Gerp, for example, conducted 2,400 interviews between September 30 and October 2, 2026. The survey was contracted by the institute itself, with a confidence level of 95.55% and a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The registration in TSE is the registration number BR-00509/2026.

PoderData listened to 4,000 people in the same period, with a margin of error of 1.5 percentage points and 95% confidence. The survey was contracted by the institute itself and registered under number BR-03519/2026. Quaest interviewed 3,702 voters between October 2 and 3, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The research was contracted by Editora Globo and by Globo Comunicação e Participações S.A., with registration on BR-02197/2026.

Datafolha also released numbers, but the source did not detail the sample size, margin of error, or record on the TSE. The absence of this information prevents a more accurate comparison with the other institutes.

What to expect in the first round

With most polls indicating a technical draw, the result of the first round is unpredictable. Lula’s small numerical advantage in most surveys does not guarantee victory, as it is within the margin of error. The election may be decided by a minimum difference of votes.

Undecided voters and those who intend to vote white or null can also influence the final result, since the percentages presented consider only valid votes. Abstention is another factor that can change the scenario projected by the surveys.

Importance for the voter

Tracking the polls on the eve of the election helps the voter to understand the political scenario, but it is important to remember that it is a photograph of the moment. The numbers may change until the polls open, and the only definitive poll is the vote.

For voters of Ponta Grossa and Campos Gerais, the national dispute also reflects local political divisions. The region has a tradition of conservative voting, but the scenario may vary according to the profile of the electorate. The source has not detailed regional data so we cannot state any specific trends for the Paraná.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to track the counting and bring real-time updates. Stay tuned so you don’t miss out on any of the details of the 2026 elections.

Read Also

AtlasIntel 2026 survey shows Lula and Flavio tied

Elections 2026: Paraná votes this Sunday for five positions

CNT/MDA: Lula leads with 47.8% of valid votes

Font

www.gazetadopovo.com