Electoral polls: fear mobilizes voters, says scientist
Political scientist Felipe Nunes, professor at FGV-SP and director of Quaest, analyzes in the podcast O Assunto the movements captured in opinion polls ahead of the first round. He explains why fear is the emotion that most mobilizes voters and evaluates the impacts of the Master Case, the STF crisis and the controversy involving N. S. Aparecida on voter preferences.
The podcast O Assunto, presented by Natuza Nery, received this week the political scientist Felipe Nunes for an in-depth analysis of the electoral polls on the eve of the first round. The episode, identified as #1816, addressed the recent movements captured in opinion polls and the factors that have influenced the preferences of the Brazilian electorate.
Felipe Nunes, professor at FGV-SP and director of Quaest, explained that fear is the feeling that mobilizes voters most at this time. According to the expert, recent events such as the Master Case, the crisis involving the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) and the controversy surrounding Nossa Senhora Aparecida have generated significant impacts on voting intentions.
Fear as an engine of voting
During the conversation, Nunes detailed how fear acts as a catalyst for electoral decisions. In scenarios of uncertainty, voters tend to seek candidates who convey security and stability, often at the expense of programmatic proposals.
The political scientist pointed out that this phenomenon is not new, but has gained specific contours in the current electoral cycle. The polarization and dissemination of information on social networks amplify fears, leading to rapid changes in research.
Nunes also mentioned that fear can be directed both against a specific candidate and against a scenario of institutional instability. This feeling, he says, is more effective than hope at boosting participation and voting definition.
Impact of the Master Case
One of the central topics of the episode was the so-called Master Case, which, as Nunes explained, generated repercussions in the electorate. Although the source did not detail the exact content of the case, the expert assessed that the episode contributed to changing perceptions about certain candidates.
The professor of FGV-SP pointed out that scandals or controversies involving public figures usually have an immediate effect on research, especially when exploited by the opposition. However, he pondered that the impact may be temporary, depending on the responsiveness of those involved.
Nunes emphasized that the Brazilian voter is increasingly attentive to integrity issues, and cases like this can reinforce narratives of fear and rejection.
STF crisis and its repercussions
Another point analyzed was the crisis involving the Supremo Tribunal Federal. Felipe Nunes explained that the wear and tear of the Court’s image has direct reflections on the behavior of the electorate, especially among those who see the STF as a political actor.
According to the political scientist, the crisis of STF fuels the feeling of mistrust in the institutions, which may favor candidates with anti-system discourse. He noted that this phenomenon is observed in different segments of the electorate, regardless of ideological position.
Nunes stressed that the perception of institutional instability tends to increase fear, reinforcing the thesis that this feeling is the main mobilizer of the vote in this cycle.
Controversy with N. S. Aparecida
The controversy involving Nossa Senhora Aparecida was also the subject of the analysis. Felipe Nunes estimated that the episode touched on religious symbols dear to a significant portion of the population, generating emotional reactions that are reflected in the surveys.
The expert pointed out that in a country with a strong Catholic tradition, any controversy related to religious figures can mobilize voters intensely. He recalled that fear of offending religious values is a powerful factor of engagement.
Nunes said the impact of this type of controversy tends to be more lasting than political scandals, as it affects the identity and faith of voters.
Reading of the polls and electoral scenario
In addition to the specific events, the episode brought a general reading of the movements captured in opinion polls. Felipe Nunes explained that the recent swings reflect an electorate still undecided and sensitive to short-term events.
The director of Quaest stressed that the margin of error and the methodology of the surveys should be considered in the interpretation of the numbers. He warned of the risk of rushed readings, especially in a high volatility environment.
Nunes also commented on the importance of observing trends over time, rather than focusing on isolated results. According to him, the photograph of the surveys on the eve of the first round shows a competitive scenario, with room for change.
What to expect before the vote
Asked about expectations for the next few days, Felipe Nunes said fear will continue to be a central element in the final straight. Campaigns tend to intensify messages that exploit fears, both to attract votes and to reject opponents.
The political scientist recommended attention to debates and electoral propaganda, which can influence the undecided. He also mentioned that the participation of voters who declare themselves undecided or who intend to annul the vote will be decisive.
Nunes concluded by stressing that the scenario is dynamic and that the surveys are a portrait of the moment, not a definitive forecast. The source did not detail numerical projections.
The full episode of the podcast The Subject is available on major audio platforms. The production is by Luiz Felipe Silva, Carlos Catelan, Luiz Gabriel Franco, Juliene Moretti, Stéphanie Nascimento, Marco Antônio Martins and Thomé Granemann, with presentation by Natuza Nery.
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