Flávio Bolsonaro seeks to expand his base in the second round
After the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro intensifies the search for support and mobilization of his base. Allies such as Tarcísio and Zema have already declared support, while the PL is organizing in Congress. The campaign bets on vote transfer and the discourse of change.
After the first round of the presidential elections, the candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) begins the dispute of the second round with an advantage over the opponent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). With the result of the ballot boxes, the bolsonarist campaign mobilizes allies and seeks to expand its support base throughout the country. The strategy includes the participation of governors, articulations in Congress and the attempt to attract voters from defeated candidates.
Tarcisio promises full focus on the campaign
São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas said he would have “total focus” on the presidential dispute from now on. According to Tarcísio himself, the expectation is that he participates in agendas outside of São Paulo and helps to expand Flavio’s campaign. "There will be no demobilization, there will be work, intense work," said the governor of São Paulo. The declaration signals a direct engagement of the head of the São Paulo Executive in the final straight of the election.
The presence of Tarcisius at campaign events can be a boon to Flavius, especially in states where the governor has good appraisal. The mobilization of regional leaders is seen as essential to consolidate votes and attract undecided ones. The campaign bets on Tarcísio’s capillarity to reinforce the discourse of continuity and change.
PL uses Senate bench as political trump
In Congress, the PL also intends to use the result of the polls as a political argument. The party has elected 19 senators and will have the largest seat in the Senate from 2027, with 28 members in the House. This significant number can facilitate coalition formation and governance under a possible presidency of Flávio Bolsonaro. “Although Brazil’s fragmented and transactional congressional system remains an important constraint,” says Haugaard, a political analyst.
The force in the Legislative is presented by the campaign as an indication that Flavio would be able to govern with parliamentary support. The articulation in Congress seeks to attract parties and leaders who can align themselves with the bolsonarist project in the second round. The PL works to turn the elected bench into a political asset in the presidential dispute.
Caiado and Zema's support at stake
The transfer of votes from defeated candidates in the first round is not automatic. So far, the expectation is that the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, declares support for Flávio, but that the PSD remains neutral and frees state leaders and directories to decide their support. This stance of the Gilberto Kassab party leaves room for case-by-case negotiations.
The former governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema, declared support for Flávio on Monday (5). On Sunday, Zema had signaled that it would be "opposition to the PT". Zema’s membership is seen as important to expand the bolsonarist presence in Minas Gerais, the second largest electoral college in the country. The campaign hopes that Zema’s support will help consolidate votes in the state.
On the other hand, Senator Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) has already stated that he does not intend to support either candidate. The neutrality of some leaders indicates that the dispute for the centre and right electorate is still open. Flavio’s campaign works to attract these votes, but recognizes that each support needs to be negotiated individually.
Discourse of change and mobilization of the base
Flávio’s campaign works with the prospect that part of the electorate of defeated candidates will naturally approach his candidacy, but the intention is to turn this trend into effective support in the polls. The candidate himself adopted a speech of political change while celebrating the result of the first round. "The end of the era of the PT is decreed. The change in our country," said Flavio after the count.
At the same time, the importance of mobilizing the already conquered base is growing, as each vote becomes even more weighty. The campaign intensifies street action, carriages and digital engagement to ensure that voters who voted for Flavio in the first round go to the polls again. The strategy is to avoid abstention and consolidate the votes obtained.
The discourse of change seeks to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the current government and the PT, but the campaign also needs to deal with the rejection of bolsonarism in some segments. The team of Flavio bets on polarization to mobilize its base and conquer undecided. The final contest promises to be marked by intense dispute for each vote.
Next steps of the campaign
With the second round scheduled for the end of October, the Flávio Bolsonaro campaign should intensify agendas in strategic states, such as Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. The participation of Tarcísio and Zema in public events is expected, as well as the articulation with mayors and elected deputies. The PL should also use its Senate bench to push for guidelines that reinforce the narrative of governability.
The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to monitor the campaign and candidate movements. The full coverage of the second round, with analysis and behind the scenes, will be available on our platforms. Stay tuned so you don’t miss any updates on the presidential race.
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