Flávio's Favoritism or Lula's Rejection? by Gleidson Carlos

Never before in the history of this country has a candidate who won the presidential election in the first round ended defeated in the second. That's right. And there is more: when this happened, the victory was not tight.

Fernando Henrique Cardoso won in the first round in 1994 and 1998. In 2014, Dilma Rousseff won the first round, but started the second round dispute behind Aécio Neves: 51% to 49%. In the end, it won by 51.64% against 48.36%.

Now, the 2026 scenario brings a fact that deserves attention: Flávio Bolsonaro moves beyond the traditional electorate of bolsonarism. There are non-Bolsonarian voters, including C-class voters, who are willing to vote for him. But this does not necessarily mean an ideological adherence.

It can be something much simpler: the desire for change. After all, often the voter does not vote properly for a candidate. Vote against those in power.

But beware of the anticipated conclusions. There is still a second round ahead, and a lot can change. Debates, slippers and interviews can change the mood of the voter. Campaigns can change the course of the dispute.

The question, therefore, is not who has already won the election. Is Flavio winning voters for what he represents or for the wear and tear of Lula? If it is the second, it inspires danger.

This answer can help explain the current scenario. But only the coming weeks will show whether this movement holds or whether the second round reserves a new turnaround. Whoever lives, will see!

 

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