Government will maintain fuel subsidies in 2027, says Durigan

The federal government is expected to maintain fuel subsidies in 2027, as Minister Durigan pointed out in an interview with UOL. The extension of the measures, however, will depend on international market conditions and the availability of extraordinary revenues. The legislation authorising the use of these resources to finance grants is only valid for 2026.

Durigan explained that the 2026 budget was drawn up with an oil projection of $64 per barrel. With the quotation above $100, the federal collection increased, which allowed to finance part of the measures to contain the increase in fuels caused by the war in Iran. He said the government has chosen to use the additional revenue to reduce price pressure rather than improve the primary result.

Extension depends on extraordinary revenues

The minister said that the government could submit a new proposal to Congress without increasing the expenditures foreseen in the budget. “I’m not going to ask for more tax space, I’m not going to spend more,” he said. The speech indicates that any subsidies in 2027 will need to fit within the spending limit already established, without compromising the tax targets.

The source did not detail the legal instruments needed to extend the measures beyond 2026. Durigan also did not provide estimates of collection or expenses for any grants in 2027. The indefiniteness leaves open how the government will make possible the continuity of support without injuring the current legislation.

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Export tax directs oil to domestic market

According to the minister, the collection seeks to discourage the exports of crude oil and direct part of the national production to the Brazilian refineries. “We are not making export tax for tax purposes. It helps in the targeting of the oil and has a secondary consequence of increasing the collection,” he said. The measure, therefore, has a regulatory character, and not merely a collection.

The minister stressed that the measures are not aimed at setting prices, but at softening the effects of the international high on inflation and the cost of food. The strategy seeks to cushion the impact on the consumer’s pocket without directly interfering with Petrobras’ price policy.

Impact on the consumer and public accounts

Maintaining subsidies in 2027 could ease the pressure on fuel prices, which affect everything from transportation to food prices. However, the lack of clarity on the sources of funding creates uncertainty about the fiscal sustainability of the measure. The government will need to balance immediate consumer relief with the responsibility of not widening the public deficit.

For the Paraná and Campos Gerais, a region of strong agricultural and logistics activity, the cost of diesel is a critical factor. Continuity of subsidies can help contain the costs of production and freight, benefiting local producers and consumers. However, the source did not detail specific regional impacts.

Next Steps in Congress

The expectation is that the government will forward to Congress a formal proposal to extend the subsidies, if market conditions so require. The minister did not indicate any deadlines for such a presentation. The legislative process will be decisive to ensure legal certainty for the continuity of the measures in 2027.

Meanwhile, the market tracks oil volatility and the unfolding war in Iran, which continue to influence domestic prices. The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to monitor the official announcements and the impacts for the Brazilian and Paranaense economy.

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