Ibovespa closes up 7.7% and surpasses 200,000 points

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock market, closed up 7.71% on Monday (5.out.2026), at 206,920.66 points. The index has for the first time exceeded the 200,000 point mark. The commercial dollar fell 4.12% and closed the day at R$ 5,001 in sale. It was the first session after the first round of the presidential election, held on Sunday (4.out).

The move came after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ended the vote ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) by 47.03% to 45.16%. Flavio received 56,104,268 votes and Lula received 53,876,617 votes. The difference is 1.87 percentage point (p.p.), or just over 2.2 million votes.

The result contradicted most of the surveys published in the campaign’s final straight, which showed Lula numerically ahead. The second round of the presidential election is scheduled for October 25.

The market reacts to the electoral scenario

Ibovespa’s strong rise reflects the immediate reaction of investors to the result of the first round. The leadership of Flávio Bolsonaro, although tight, surprised financial agents who expected a better performance of Lula, as indicated by the surveys. The difference of 1.87 percentage point, although small, was enough to boost optimism in the stock market.

The dollar, in turn, fell below R$ 5.00, an important psychological level. The US currency closed at R$ 5,001, accumulating a devaluation of 4.12% on the day. This joint move — the stock market up and the dollar down — usually signals a greater appetite for risk and an expectation of economic policies that are considered more favorable to the market.

Analysts heard by the portal pointed out that the reaction was immediate and intense, but warned of volatility until the second round. The source has not detailed future projections, but the uncertainty scenario remains as the dispute remains open.

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Numbers of the first round

The official numbers show a sharp turnout. Flávio Bolsonaro got 56,104,268 votes, while Lula got 53,876,617 votes. The difference of 2,227,651 votes represents 1.87 percentage points, a narrow margin that keeps the election indefinite.

The result contradicted most of the surveys published in the campaign’s final straight, which showed Lula numerically ahead. This discrepancy between surveys and the actual result may have contributed to the surprise of the market and the magnitude of the Ibovespa hike.

With the second round scheduled for October 25, investors should closely follow the candidates’ next steps, as well as any alliances and statements on economic policy. The source did not detail the electoral calendar beyond the date of the second round.

Impact for local investors

For the individual investor, the Ibovespa hike represents a relevant recovery of the stock portfolio. Those holding positions in companies listed on B3 saw the value of assets rise significantly in a single day. However, experts recommend caution, as the volatility should remain high until the definition of the poll.

The fall in the dollar also benefits those who have debts or investments tied to the U.S. currency, in addition to relieving pressure on prices of imported products. On the other hand, exporters may feel a negative impact in the short term, as revenue in reals tends to decline.

The Boca no Trombone portal will continue to monitor the unfolding of the electoral scenario and its effects on the economy. The source did not detail projections for the upcoming talks, but the expectation is that the market will remain sensitive to polls and statements from candidates.

Next steps of coverage

The presidential election now enters a new phase, with the second round scheduled for October 25. Until then, investors should monitor candidates’ agendas, debates, and new polls of intent to vote. The performance of Ibovespa and the dollar in the coming weeks will be a thermometer of market expectations.

The Boca no Trombone team will continue to bring up-to-date information on the impact of policy on the economy, with analysis and special reports. Continue browsing the portal so as not to miss any news on the subject.

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