Ibovespa Volatility More Than Doubles Ahead of Elections

The volatility of the Ibovespa, the main index of the B3, reached 30.17 points in the week ended on Friday (18.Sep.2026), a rise of 5.31% compared to the previous week. The indicator more than doubled since the week of July 12, when it was at 14.48 points. The jump was recorded 16 days before the first round of elections, scheduled for October 4.

The S&P/B3 Ibovespa VIX measures the expected volatility for the following 30 days based on the prices of options linked to Ibovespa. The higher the score, the greater the oscillation expected by the operators. The indicator does not show if the stock market tends to rise or fall.

August concealed strong internal movements

The analyst of the Mide Group, Gabriel Castro, said that the almost stable closure of Ibovespa in August concealed strong movements during the month. The index accumulated 11 consecutive falls and then 9 highs in a row.

“The investor who looked only at the monthly statement thought that nothing happened, but who lived the month went through 2 entire trends in opposite directions,” he said.

According to Castro, September had the second best week of 2026. On Monday (14 September 2026), Ibovespa varied from 183,813 points to 187,321 points. The difference was almost 2%.

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Election polls are moving the market

The market is following election polls. In recent weeks, surveys have recorded progress of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In some second-round scenarios, Flávio appeared numerically in front of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

According to Castro, part of the investors consider Flávio more aligned to an agenda of control of public spending. This assessment, however, depends on the measures presented by the candidates and does not explain the movements of the Stock Exchange alone.

The fiscal debate has gained momentum after the Bolsa Família readjustment, announced on Thursday (17 September 2026). “It’s the kind of announcement that the market immediately reads through the lens of public accounts. And we are already starting to look at the necessary adjustment in 2027, whoever is elected,” Castro said.

STF and exterior increase uncertainties

In addition to the elections, institutional tension in the Supremo Tribunal Federal has raised uncertainties, according to analysts. Rafael Minotto, from Ciano Investimentos, said the disputes in the Court provoke “legal uncertainties that the market interprets as risk”.

In the Estados Unidos, doubts about the pace of development of artificial intelligence have also influenced the markets.

Four additional volatility factors

Castro lists four other factors linked to the increase in volatility: foreign flow – resource inflows tend to boost the index, while outflows push stocks; monetary policy – higher interest rates on Estados Unidos can reduce the flow destined for emerging markets; commodities – Vale and Petrobras respond to changes in iron ore and oil stocks; portfolio rebalancing – changes in Iboves.

In a volatile market, prices travel longer distances on the same day. The movement can create the impression that there are easy opportunities for gain. “It’s an environment that demands more of the short-term investor’s emotional,” Minotto said.

For the investor, the scenario reinforces the need for caution and a long-term vision. Follow the next updates on the financial market and elections on Boca no Trombone.

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