Islamic NATO remains inactive despite Houthi attacks

The historic military agreement signed last month between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, which provides for mutual defense if one of the countries is attacked, has not been activated so far despite the Houthis' offensive against Saudi territory. Since July, the Yemeni group has attacked Saudi military positions along the Yemeni border, as well as energy facilities inside Saudi Arabia. Last Tuesday, at least 73 civilians were injured in Saudi Arabia after Houthis attacked four cities.

The escalation of hostilities reignites the debate over the effectiveness of the so-called Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed on August 7. The trilateral pact, which establishes the commitment to mutual action in the event of aggression against one of the members, has been compared to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Despite this, the so-called “Islamic NATO” has not yet been involved in the clashes between the Saudis and the Houthis.

Context of the conflict in Yemen

Taking advantage of political and social instability in Yemen, the Houthis took control of the country’s north, including the capital Sanaa, in 2014. In an attempt to support the recognized Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia created an international military coalition in 2015. In 2022, the UN brokered a ceasefire agreement between all parties to the conflict. The truce, however, has been broken on several occasions.

The group’s attacks coincide with a sea blockade of Saudi vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in effect since July, and the Houthis’ offensive in Yemen. This combination of military and economic pressures has raised tensions in the region, but it has not yet been enough to trigger the collective defense mechanism provided for in the Mecca agreement.

Coalition Cooperation 2015

Pakistan and Turkey continue to cooperate with Saudi Arabia through the military coalition created in 2015 to support the Yemeni government in the war against the Yemeni group. This is outside the scope of the new trilateral pact. The source did not detail whether there are practical differences between the two arrangements or whether the Meccan agreement represents only a formalization of existing commitments.

The continuation of coalition cooperation suggests that the three countries prefer, for the time being, to avoid an escalation that could be interpreted as a regional declaration of war. The activation of the joint defense agreement could drag NATO member Turkey into a wider conflict in the Oriente Médio, with unpredictable implications.

Statement by the Pakistani Minister

On Wednesday, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said the agreement could be activated if the situation in the region escalates. "If there is unprovoked aggression, or if what is happening in Yemen [the Houthis offensive] spreads to Saudi Arabia, the Mecca Agreement will certainly come into force," he told Pakistani newspaper Geo News.

Asif’s speech indicates that, despite inaction so far, the covenant is not a dead letter. The condition for its activation, according to the minister, would be an unprovoked aggression or the expansion of the conflict into Saudi territory. The recent attacks, although they have hit Saudi cities, may not have been interpreted as an aggression justifying the invocation of the treaty.

Why was the deal not triggered?

The decision not to activate the agreement may be related to strategic calculations. Saudi Arabia, as the leader of the 2015 coalition, may prefer to maintain control of military operations without directly involving its new partners. In addition, the nature of the Houthis’ attacks — often with missiles and drones — can be seen as a limited threat, which does not require a collective response under the treaty.

Another factor is political sensitivity. Turkey has complex ties with Iran, the main supporter of the Houthis, and a hasty activation of the deal could undermine the diplomatic balance in the region. Pakistan, in turn, faces internal and external pressures, and its participation in conflicts in the Oriente Médio is historically controversial. The source did not detail whether there were formal consultations between the three countries on the activation of the pact.

Humanitarian impact and next steps

The attacks by the Houthis have caused civilian casualties and damage to Saudi energy infrastructure. The balance of 73 wounded in four cities, recorded on Tuesday, highlights the human cost of the conflict. The international community is following with concern the possibility of an escalation that directly involves the regional powers.

So far, there is no indication that the Mecca Agreement will be triggered in the short term. The Pakistani minister's statement, however, keeps the door open for a collective response if the situation deteriorates. The unfolding of events in Yemen and on the Saudi border will be decisive for the future of “Islamic NATO”.

For more information on the conflict in Yemen and its regional developments, continue to follow the Boca no Trombone portal.

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