Lula sees disapproval rising in the Northeast and pressures campaign

Less than a month before the vote in the first round of the 2026 elections, President Lula (PT) faces the highest level of disapproval in the Northeast since the beginning of the year, according to Quaest’s poll released on Monday (7). The scenario puts pressure on the petista in the fight against Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), which sees in the region a compulsory path to victory.

Disapproval grows six points in a month

One of the aspects that helps to explain this moment is the disapproval of the petista in the Northeast. In January of this year, 30% of the region’s voters disapproved of Lula’s management. In September, that level rose to 35%.

Lula recovered a little from July to August, but since then the line of disapproval has been pointing upwards. In just one month, it advanced 6 percentage points, just as approval declined by the same measure, as the chart below shows:

The movement coincides with the intensification of the campaign of Flávio Bolsonaro, which has precisely targeted the northeastern states to reverse the historical advantage of the PT in the region.

Flávio plans offensive in the Northeast

A victory of Flávio Bolsonaro against Lula will have to go through the Northeast. It is not by chance that the PL candidate visited the region at the beginning of the official campaign period. The first stop was in Maceió (AL), land of his candidate for vice, Alfredo Gaspar (PL).

Given the good moment in the polls - in which Flávio draws and comes to lead numerically in the second round against Lula - the candidate plans an offensive in the Northeast next week.

The strategy includes agendas in key states where local dispute imposes difficulties for the left and can influence the presidential vote.

State disputes complicate scenario for Lula

In these states, the local dispute imposes difficulties for the left. Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), in Bahia, and Elmano de Freitas (PT), in Ceará, seek re-election and have clashes with ACM Neto (União Brasil) and Ciro Gomes (PSDB), respectively.

In Quaest’s most recent surveys, the scenarios are of a technical tie in the second round. In Pernambuco, Lula's ally, João Campos (PSB), would lose the dispute in the second round against Raquel Lyra (PSD).

These regional clashes can repel the federal government’s assessment and Lula’s performance in the region, traditionally a petista stronghold.

Methodology of cited research

The national data are from Quaest President 14/1/2026: 2,004 interviewed by Quaest between January 8 and 11, 2026. The research was contracted by Banco Genial S.A.. Confidence level: 95%. Margin of error: 2 percentage points. Registration number TSE number BR-00835/2026.

The state surveys have a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. In Pernambuco, Quaest heard 1,302 people from September 4 to 7, 2026, with registration PE-00285/2026. In Ceará, there were 900 interviewees from August 31 to September 3, registration CE-01149/2026. In Bahia, 900 interviewees from August 23 to 26, registration BA-06206/2026.

The growth of Lula’s disapproval in the Northeast is a wake-up call in the petist campaign, which needs to contain the sangria in its main electoral college to avoid a turn of Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round.

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