Map shows division of evangelical vote by municipality

A survey released this week mapped how Brazilian municipalities voted according to the evangelical presence in the population. The data crosses the percentage of evangelicals in each city with the performance of candidates Lula and Flavio in the second round of the presidential elections. The result shows an association between the two variables, but with different intensity depending on the region of the country.

In the cities, the Senator's performance varied from 7.6% to 90.5% of the valid votes. The share of evangelicals in the population ranged from 1.2% to 88.7%. To compare the two measures, each was divided into three bands — low, medium and high — resulting in nine possible combinations on the map below.

Central-West concentrates stronger association

The portrait of this association is in the Midwest. There, 42% of the municipalities are in the group with the highest evangelical presence and, at the same time, with the highest vote in the candidate of the PL. The purple spot extends from Mato Grosso to Goiás and advances through Rondônia, Tocantins and southern Pará.

The proportion of evangelical residents is associated with the division of the vote between Lula and Flavio in the second round, but this relationship varies greatly by country. When municipalities are grouped according to the percentage of evangelicals, the advantage changes sideways in the range between 20% and 40%.

Lula’s advantage diminishes as evangelical presence grows

In the 502 municipalities where evangelicals represent up to 10% of the population considered by the survey, Lula obtained 68.5% of the valid votes, compared to 31.5% of Flávio. In the following band, between 10% and 20% of evangelicals, Lula still led by 61.3% to 38.7%, considering 1,929 municipalities.

The difference decreases in the band of 20% to 30% of the evangelical population, formed by 1,819 municipalities: Lula appears with 51.3% of the valid votes, against 48.7% of Flavio.

From 30%, the result is reversed. In the 973 municipalities with a proportion of evangelicals between 30% and 40%, Flávio reached 54.2% and Lula, 45.8%. Between 40% and 50%, the score was from 54.6% to 45.4%. In the 58 municipalities in which more than half of the population is evangelical, Flavio reached 55.2%, while Lula stood at 44.8%.

Relationships are not uniform across the country

The relationship, however, does not repeat with the same intensity throughout the national territory. The calculation of the correlation between the municipal proportion of evangelicals and Lula’s vote shows differences between the states.

Midwest: Faith and vote in the same direction. This is where the pattern appears most sharply. Goiânia, Campo Grande and Cuiabá have proportion of evangelicals above the national average, and Flavio won with a break in the three. In Anápolis (GO), where the evangelical presence is even greater, the advantage of the PL candidate was even broader.

Northeast and Northeast have different scenarios

Northeast: In 55% of the municipalities of the region, evangelicals are proportionally few and Flavio had low votes. At the other extreme, the northeastern interior concentrates cities with fewer evangelicals and Lula’s expressive vote. Juazeiro do Norte (CE), a pole of Catholic pilgrimages, is one of the examples. Among the big cities, Salvador and Teresina gave Lula a wide advantage.

The region was Lula’s main stronghold: still in the first round, Lula led in the Northeast, while Flavio was better in the Southeast, South, Midwest and North.

In the North, the opposite happens. In large areas of the Amazon and Pará, the evangelical presence is high, but the vote of Flavio remained in the intermediate or low range.

Correlation does not mean causality

This means that, in these states, municipalities with higher percentages of evangelicals tend to register lower percentages of votes in Lula. Correlation, however, does not demonstrate that religion caused the election result. The indicator shows that the two variables move together, without isolating other factors that also differentiate the municipalities.

The national map shows that religious composition does not alone explain electoral geography. There are areas of the Midwest where high percentages of evangelicals coincide with high votes in Flavio, while parts of the South register electoral strength of Flavio even without a similar correspondence between the two variables.

Research has already shown a trend

The map reinforces what polls already indicated. In Datafolha on October 6 and 7, just after the first round, Flávio had 69% of voter intention among evangelical voters, against 25% of Lula. Unlike his father, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who claims to be Catholic, Flavius was baptized into the evangelical faith.

The complete data of the survey can be consulted in the interactive map provided by the source. The detailed analysis by municipality allows to identify regional patterns and better understand the relationship between religion and vote in Brazil.

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