Quaest: Contar leads Senate in MS with 23%

The second Quaest poll on the Senate dispute in Mato Grosso do Sul, released last Friday (25), shows a scenario of a technical tie in the leadership between Capitão Contar (PL) and Reinaldo Azambuja (PL). In the stimulated survey, Contar appears with 23% of the voting intentions, while Azambuja registers 22%. The margin of error is 3 percentage points for more or less.

The numbers were obtained from the sum of the mentions for the first and second vacancies, in a total that represents 100% of the voting intentions, maintaining the proportion between candidates, white/null and undecided. The survey was commissioned by TV Morena and listened to 804 people aged 16 years or older between September 21 and 24.

Technical tie in the lead

Soraya (PSB) appears with 10% and Vander Loubet (PT) with 8%. The other candidates are unknown by more than 85% of the voters of Mato Grosso of the South, which indicates a scenario still in formation for the contest of the two seats in the Senate in 2026.

In 2026, two senators will be elected in each state and in the Federal District, to renew 54 of the 81 seats. Each voter must vote for two different candidates, and it is not possible to choose the same name twice.

Rejection: Soraya leads

In terms of rejection, Soraya (PSB) is the most rejected candidate, with 38% of the voters saying that they would not vote for her in any way. Vander Loubet (PT) comes next, with 37%. Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) has a 32% rejection, and Capitão Contar (PL) is the least rejected among the main names, with 23%.

These data are part of the same stimulated survey, which also measured the voting potential of each candidate. The research has a 95% confidence level and is registered in the TSE under the numbers MS-09580/2026 and BR-04113/2026.

Undecided fall, but remain high

In the spontaneous scenario, when the respondent does not have access to a list of candidates, the percentage of undecided was 86% in August and now is 67%, in the combination of total votes for the two positions. The drop of 19 percentage points indicates a greater knowledge of the names, but there is still a large contingent of voters without definition.

In the spontaneous poll, the names are not shown to the voters interviewed. In the stimulated, the list of candidates is presented, and each interviewee needs to answer twice for whom he wants to vote: for the first vacancy and then for the second vacancy.

Methodology and context

Quaest listened to 804 people aged 16 years or older, between September 21 and 24, in Mato Grosso of the South. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, for more or less, and the level of confidence is 95%. The survey was commissioned by TV Morena.

The results consider the mentions for the first and second vacancies, in a total that adds 100% of the voting intentions. This allows to evaluate the performance of the candidates in the contest for the two seats that will be at stake in the next election.

With the election of two senators per state in 2026, the scenario in Southern Mato Grosso may still change significantly, especially in the face of the high rate of undecided and unfamiliarity with lesser-known candidates.

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