Quaest points tight scenario for president in second round
The new Quaest poll for president in the second round, released on October 14, 2026, points to a technical tie between the candidates. The survey interviewed 2,154 voters between October 10 and 13, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
The presidential dispute remains indefinite in the second round, according to the latest survey by the Quaest institute, released on Monday (14). The survey, hired by Rede Globo, heard 2,154 voters between October 10 and 13, 2026, across the country. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The registration in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is the BR-08729/2026.
The scenario stimulated – when the names of the candidates are presented to the interviewees – and the spontaneous research – without the display of the names – were the two formats applied by the institute. The numbers reinforce the technical tie table already observed on the eve of the first round, when Flávio and Lula appeared separated by only one percentage point.
Technical tie persists in the second round
In the previous poll, published on October 3, Flavio registered 46% of valid vote intentions, compared to 45% of Lula. The margin of error of 2 percentage points indicated a technical tie. At the polls, on October 5, Flavio obtained 47.03% of the valid votes, and Lula, 45.16%, confirming the closeness pointed out by the institute.
For the second round, Quaest did not detail the exact percentages of each candidate in the press release released to the press. The source did not detail whether the numerical advantage remains with Flavius or whether there was reversal. The absence of specific numbers, however, does not prevent the reading that the dispute remains sharp, given the recent history and the margin of error of the survey.
Methodology and scope of research
The current survey was conducted with 2,154 interviewees, selected by representative sampling of the Brazilian population. The collection took place between October 10 and 13, in all regions of the country. The contract was signed with Rede Globo, and the registration in TSE is BR-08729/2026.
The survey on the eve of the first round, published on October 3, had 3,702 interviews, collected between October 2 and 3. It was contracted by Editora Globo and by Globo Comunicação e Participações S.A., with registration TSE on BR-02197/2026. The difference in sample size reflects the electoral moment: eve polls usually have a higher number of interviews to reduce the margin of error.
Factors that influence the results
Interview methods, sample composition, and even question formulation can change the results of a poll. Therefore, experts recommend attention to methodological information, usually available at the end of the subjects. The Gazeta do Povo, for example, has published for years all the research of the main institutes, always with the technical data.
In the case of Quaest, the application of spontaneous and stimulated questionnaires allows to capture both the consolidated vote and the migration potential. The spontaneous survey, without the list of candidates, measures the memory of the voter; the stimulated one, with the names, simulates the urn. The combination of the two formats offers a more complete portrait of the scenery.
Reading for the moment, not prognosis
It is important to emphasize that polls of voting intention are a photograph of the moment, based on representative samples. They do not have a predictive character, but serve as a thermometer of the electorate. The margin of error of 2 percentage points means that the actual percentages can vary to more or less within that range.
In the first round, Quaest hit the draw trend, with Flavio numerically ahead. In the polls, the difference was 1.87 percentage point, within the margin of error of the survey. For the second round, the expectation is that new surveys, with larger samples and different methodologies, will help to clarify the picture.
Next steps and follow-up
The People's Gazette will continue to publish all the electoral polls registered in TSE, with the respective methodological data. The reader can follow the evolution of the numbers until the day before the vote, scheduled for the last Sunday of October. The recommendation is always to check the record on the TSE, the number of interviewees and the margin of error before drawing conclusions.
In the meantime, campaigns adjust their strategies based on these numbers. The indefiniteness of the electorate, reflected in the technical tie, tends to intensify the dispute for votes in the segments still undecided. The next survey by Quaest, or other institutes, may indicate whether there will be detachment or maintenance of balance.
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