Quaest Senate RO: Máximo leads with 18%

The dispute for the Senate in Rondônia gained new contours with the disclosure of the Quaest poll on Thursday (24). The survey, commissioned by Rede Amazônica, shows Maximum with 18% of the voting intentions, closely followed by Cristina, with 16%. Mariana Carvalho appears with 11%, while Sheid registers 8%.

The numbers reflect the sum of the mentions for the first and second vacancies, a methodology adopted by Quaest to capture the complexity of the majority election. In 2026, each voter will vote for two different candidates for the Senate, renewing 54 of the House’s 81 seats.

Methodology considers two vacancies in dispute

The stimulated research presents the interviewees with a list of candidates and asks them to indicate two preferences: one for the first job and another for the second. This format reflects the reality of the ballot boxes, where the voter has to choose two different names.

The results consider the mentions for both vacancies in a total that adds 100% of the voting intentions, maintaining the ratio between candidates, whites/nulls and undecided. The approach allows a more accurate reading of the electoral scenario, although it requires attention in the interpretation of the percentages.

In the spontaneous poll, when names are not shown, 27% of voters declared themselves undecided because they could not name a candidate. This data reveals an electorate still in preference formation, which may change until October.

Scenario shows indefiniteness among voters

The survey also measured the degree of conviction of the vote. For 63% of the ears, the choice of the candidate is final. Another 36% admit they can still change their minds until the elections, scheduled for October 4.

This percentage of undecided or volatile voters is significant and may change the current picture. The margin of error of 3 percentage points, for more or less, adds another layer of uncertainty, especially among candidates with close percentages.

Quaest listened to 804 people aged 16 and over between September 20 and 23. The confidence level is 95%, and the survey was registered in TSE under the numbers RO-08556/2026 and BR-06511/2026.

Rejection was also measured.

In addition to the voting intentions, Quaest asked about the knowledge and rejection of each candidate. The respondents indicated if they knew and would vote, if they did not know or knew each other and would not vote.

The most rejected candidates, with the highest rates of "know and would not vote", are Acir Gurgacz (PDT) and Mariana Carvalho (Republicans). This data is relevant because rejection can limit a candidate’s growth ceiling, even with good exposure.

The full survey, including the spontaneous data and the detailed numbers per vacancy, is available on the Quaest portal. The dissemination meets the electoral norms and allows voters to follow the evolution of the scenario.

What to Expect Until the Election

With just over five months until the vote, the scenario for the Senate in Rondônia remains open. Maximo's leadership is narrow, and the difference for Cristina is within the margin of error. Mariana and Sheid also remain in the race, with growth potential.

The definition of the two vacancies will depend on the ability of candidates to win over undecided voters and reduce rejection. The election campaign, which is intensifying in the coming months, will be decisive in consolidating preferences.

For the voter, it is essential to follow the surveys and debates, in addition to verifying the proposals of each candidate. The choice of two senators will have a direct impact on Rondônia’s representation in the Congresso Nacional for the next eight years.

Read Also

Quaest: indefinite election, to be defined in a second round, by Gleidson Carlos

Government assesses betting ban and billionaire risk

Bolsonaro’s defense backs down and waives 27-year sentence

Font

g1.globo.com