Taiwan Strait Conflict Would Be Catastrophic, Says the U.S.

The top diplomat of the Estados Unidos in Taipei warned on Wednesday that any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have a greater impact on the global economy than World War II. Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, made the statement during a defense forum in the Taiwanese capital, stressing the importance of avoiding miscalculations between Washington and Beijing.

"Beyond the human cost, any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have a greater impact on the global economy than World War II," Greene said. The speech comes at a time of rising tensions in the region, with China claiming sovereignty over the island and intensifying its military pressure.

Strong diplomacy as a priority

Greene emphasized that there is no more timely or important issue than securing peace in the Taiwan Strait. According to him, the Estados Unidos, under the Trump administration, made the preservation of peace in the Indo-Pacific one of their top priorities. This includes "vigorous" diplomacy, especially at the highest levels.

The diplomat stressed that the upcoming summit between the United States and China is an opportunity to advance further in a relationship of strategic stability, based on justice and reciprocity, able to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. The president of China, Xi Jinping, is expected to travel to the Estados Unidos later this month for a meeting with the president of the United States, Donald Trump.

Regional balance of power

In addition to diplomacy, Greene said the U.S. is strengthening its presence and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region to maintain a “favorable regional power balance.” He also mentioned direct support for Taiwan: “Thirdly, and especially relevant to today’s discussion, we are supporting Taiwan’s efforts to enhance its ability to defend itself.”

Although the United States, like most countries, does not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan — a territory claimed by China — it is the most important international supporter and arms supplier of the island, which is democratically governed. This posture has been a point of constant friction in Sino-American relations.

Taiwan increases defense spending

The government of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te prioritized increased defense spending and military modernization, given the level of threat from China. The Taiwanese government, which rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty, predicted in the budget for next year that defense spending would exceed, for the first time, 1 trillion Taiwanese dollars.

This investment reflects Taipei’s concern about the possibility of Chinese military action. China, meanwhile, maintains regular military exercises around the island and does not rule out the use of force to ensure reunification. The source did not detail the exact amounts of the budget in U.S. dollars.

Risks to the global economy

Greene’s warning echoes expert analyses that point to the Taiwan Strait as one of the most dangerous points on the planet. A conflict in the region would disrupt global supply chains, especially in the semiconductor sector, essential to the technology industry. The economic impact, according to the diplomat, would surpass that of World War II, a conflict that redesigned the world economy.

The statement comes amid uncertainty about U.S. foreign policy for Asia. The summit between Trump and Xi, scheduled for this month, will be a test for the ability of both countries to manage their differences without military escalation. For Taiwan, American support remains vital to its security.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to monitor the unfolding of this geopolitical tension and its possible reflections for Brazil and the Paraná, especially with regard to international trade and global economic stability.

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