Vox Brasil Poll: Lula has 51% and Flávio Bolsonaro 49% in a technical tie

The Vox Brazil poll, released on Sunday, points to a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the dispute for the second round of the 2026 presidential elections. Lula appears with 51% of the valid votes, while Flávio Bolsonaro registers 49%. The difference of two percentage points is within the margin of error of the survey, from 2.15 percentage points to more or less.

In the total votes, which include undecided voters and those who intend to vote blank or null, Lula has 46.4% of the voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 44.6%. The difference between the candidates is 1.8 percentage points.

The survey was conducted between October 15 and 17 and heard 2,100 voters throughout Brazil. The data was released a week before the second round of the presidential elections, scheduled for October 25.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro: see the research numbers

In the stimulated survey, in which the interviewees receive the names of the candidates, the valid votes were as follows:

Lula (PT): 51%

Flávio Bolsonaro(PL): 49%

Valid votes disregard the answers of those who wish to vote blank or null and of those interviewed who have not chosen any candidate.

When all the answers of the survey are considered, the results are:

Lula (PT): 46.4%

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 44.6%

None, white or null: 5%

Do not know or do not comment: 3.9%

The percentages show a balanced dispute between the two candidates in the final straight of the presidential campaign.

Lula and Flavio grow compared to previous research

In comparison with the previous survey of the institute, the two candidates recorded numerical growth in voting intentions.

Lula rose from 44.2% to 46.4%, a rise of 2.2 percentage points. Flávio Bolsonaro increased from 42.7% to 44.6%, growth of 1.9 percentage point.

Despite the variations, the president retained the numerical advantage over the senator. The isolated data do not allow to say that these changes represent statistically significant growth.

Research shows differences between the regions of Brazil

The Vox Brazil survey also shows differences in voting intentions according to the region of the country.

Lula appears numerically ahead in the Northeast and North regions, while Flávio Bolsonaro registers advantage in the Southeast, South and Midwest.

In the Southeast, a region that brings together the three largest electoral colleges in Brazil, the senator of the PL has 49.4% of the voting intentions, against 43.4% of the current president.

The regional cut is relevant to monitor the distribution of voting intentions in the country.

Spontaneous research also points to balanced dispute

In the spontaneous mode, when the respondents inform the candidate of preference without receiving a list of names, the result also indicates proximity between the competitors.

Considering the valid votes, Lula registers 50.6%, while Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 49.4%.

In the total votes of the spontaneous survey, the numbers are:

Lula (PT): 44.9%

Flávio Bolsonaro(PL): 43.8%

None, white or null: 5.8%

Do not know or do not comment: 5.5%

It is important to differentiate the spontaneous results from the stimulated ones, since they are different questions, with different ways of measuring the voters’ preference.

Vox Brazil survey: methodology and registration in TSE

The Vox Brazil survey heard 2,100 people between October 15 and 17, 2026, through face-to-face interviews at home.

The margin of error is 2.15 percentage points for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%.

The survey was contracted and funded by the Vox Brazil Opinião e Pesquisas Institute itself, with its own resources, and is registered in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under the number BR-04332/2026.

The collection of the interviews was completed before the presidential debate promoted by the Band, scheduled for this Sunday (18), at 8 pm. Therefore, the figures do not reflect the possible repercussions of the meeting between the candidates.

The polls represent a portrait of the voting intentions in the period in which the interviewees were heard. The results are not a definitive prediction of the outcome of the polls.