Central government deficit reaches R$90.2 billion in September

The central government registered an accumulated deficit of R$ 90.2 billion until September, according to data released on Thursday. Despite the negative result in the cumulative year, the month of September presented a surplus of R$ 4.8 billion, reversing the deficit of R$ 14.4 billion observed in the same period of 2025. The performance exceeded the median expectations of the Fiscal Prism, of the Ministry of Finance, which indicated a deficit of R $ 7.5 billion for the month.

The improvement was driven by the growth of the collection, which exceeded the advance of the expenses. In real terms, net income increased by 6.5%, the equivalent of R$ 115.6 billion, while spending grew by 5.4%, or R$ 102.1 billion. This favourable mismatch between revenues and expenditures helped to contain the turmoil in the accumulated year.

Social Security pressures federal accounts

The combined result of the National Treasury and Banco Central was a surplus of R$ 213.1 billion. The RGPS (General Social Security System) presented a deficit of R$ 303.2 billion, the main pressure factor on federal accounts. The social security expenditures grew R$ 31.7 billion in real terms, up 3.8%, driven by the increase in the number of beneficiaries and the policy of valuation of the minimum wage.

In addition to pensions, there was a growth of R$ 27.7 billion in discretionary expenditures, mainly in the areas of Health and Education, and of R$ 20.6 billion in extraordinary credits, associated with measures to reduce the economic impacts of conflicts in Oriente Médio. These additional expenses explain part of the accumulated deficit, even with the good performance of the collection.

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Revenue grows with taxes and royalties

On the revenue side, the main advances came from the Income Tax, with a real increase of R$ 27 billion, from the operating revenues of recursos naturais, with R$ 23.8 billion, and from the IOF (Financial Operations Tax), with R$ 12.2 billion. Net revenue grew 13.6% in real terms in the year-on-year comparison, while expenditures increased 2.4%.

This robust revenue growth reflects the recovery in economic activity and the rise in commodity prices, which raised recursos naturais royalties. The Income Tax was also benefited by the increase in the salary and by the performance of the companies, which recorded higher profits in the period.

Monthly surplus surprises analysts

The September surplus, of R$ 4.8 billion, came well above what the market expected. The median of the Fiscal Prism projections pointed to a deficit of R$ 7.5 billion, which indicates a significant improvement in public accounts in the short term. This result was made possible by strong revenue growth in the month, which offset the increase in mandatory spending.

The reversal in relation to the September 2025 deficit, of R$ 14.4 billion, shows a trajectory of fiscal recovery, although the cumulative of the year is still deficit. The government bets on the continuity of the growth of the collection to reduce the loss by the end of the year, but the expenditure on Social Security and extraordinary credits remain as challenges.

Impact for the citizen and next steps

For the ordinary citizen, the public deficit can affect inflation and interest rates, because the government needs to finance the turmoil by issuing debt securities. However, the monthly surplus and revenue growth are positive signs that the accounts are adjusting. Still, the pressure of the Social Security requires attention, as the aging of the population tends to increase spending in the future.

The government should continue to monitor the collection and look for ways to contain expenses, especially discretionary ones. The result of next month is expected to confirm the trend of improvement, but the external scenario, with the conflicts in the Oriente Médio, may bring volatility. The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to monitor the unfolding of public accounts and their impact on the economy.

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