Cervical Cancer Deaths Could Rise 39.3%

The number of deaths from cervical cancer could increase by 39.3% worldwide by 2050, reaching approximately 522,000 deaths per year. In the same period, the new cases of the disease should grow 20.2%, exceeding the mark of 1 million annual diagnoses. The data is part of a study published on Monday in the scientific journal Nature Medicine.

The research analyzed information from 204 countries and territories, including Brazil, and shows that despite being one of the most preventable types of cancer, the disease is expected to continue to cause hundreds of thousands of deaths in the coming decades. The scenario is especially worrisome in low-income countries, where women face greater difficulties in accessing human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, preventive screening and treatment of lesions that can progress to cancer.

Global projections and regional challenges

By 2050, researchers project 1.08 million new cases and 522,000 deaths annually. The increases correspond, respectively, to 20.2% and 39.3% compared to the levels estimated for 2024. The survey also indicates that, if current trends are maintained, none of the seven major regions of the world analyzed by the researchers is expected to reach, by 2050, the goal of elimination of cervical cancer set by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Elimination as a public health problem means reducing the incidence to less than four new cases per 100,000 women per year. The team analyzed the incidence, mortality, and impacts of cervical cancer between 1990 and 2023. From this information, the researchers built statistical models to estimate the disease’s behavior by 2050.

Brazil: estimates and methodological differences

In Brazil, researchers estimated that in 2023, there were approximately 26,500 new cases and 10,900 deaths from cervical cancer. The figures were calculated by international statistical models and differ from the official Brazilian estimates, which use another methodology. The difference reinforces the importance of interpreting the data with caution, considering the particularities of each health system and case registration.

The study was conducted by an international team of researchers, led by Natalie Pritchett and Lisa Force of the University of Washington, at Estados Unidos. To arrive at the results, the scientists used information from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, which brings together health data from different countries.

Prevention and access to health

Cervical cancer is strongly associated with persistent infection by the sexually transmitted virus HPV. HPV vaccination is an effective primary prevention tool, recommended for girls and boys before the beginning of sexual life. In addition, the preventive examination, known as Pap smear, allows to detect precursor lesions that can be treated before they evolve into cancer.

In low-income countries, vaccination coverage and access to screening are limited, which contributes to late diagnosis and higher mortality. The WHO has set global targets to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, including the vaccination of 90 percent of girls by the age of 15, the screening of 70 percent of women by the age of 35 and 45, and the treatment of 90 percent of identified lesions.

Implications for public policies

The results of the study reinforce the need for investments in prevention, early diagnosis and treatment, especially in the most vulnerable regions. The expansion of HPV vaccination and the strengthening of screening programs are essential measures to reduce the incidence and mortality of the disease. Without coordinated action, the world may not meet the elimination targets proposed by WHO.

The publication in Nature Medicine brings an alert to health managers and to society. Cervical cancer is a preventable and treatable disease when detected early. The continuity of current trends, however, points to a future with more cases and more deaths, especially among the poorest populations.

For the reader, the message is clear: prevention begins with information and access to health services. Women should undergo preventive testing regularly and, when available, receive the HPV vaccine. Awareness is a fundamental step in changing the scenario designed by the study.

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