Electoral defeats shake Kassab's strategist myth

The 2026 elections thwarted Gilberto Kassab’s reputation as an infallible strategist. The PSD president saw his presidential bets sink, the expansion of the party bench in the House fall short of the goal and allies lose government disputes. The high cost of calculation errors is blatant.

Kassab’s failure in the 2026 elections as one of the country’s five biggest party caciques began last year, by insisting on a third way to the Plateau Palace with São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). Then discarded support Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). Without Tarcisio, he formed a range of PSD presidential candidates formed by the governors Ronaldo Caiado, Ratinho Junior and Eduardo Leite. It is not a competitive alternative, it is not a competitive alternative.

Bet on third way failure

The insistence on Tarcísio de Freitas as the name of the third way proved to be a strategic misconception. The governor of São Paulo did not advance in the pre-campaign, leaving Kassab without an immediate plan B. The refusal to support Flávio Bolsonaro also limited the party’s alliances in the right-wing spectrum.

With Tarcísio's resignation, the PSD tried to build its own candidacy with three governors. However, Ratinho Junior withdrew from the dispute and Eduardo Leite did not take off. The remaining Ronaldo Caiado was unable to make itself viable as a competitive alternative.

Caiado is in fifth place

As a candidate for deputy of Caiado, Kassab finished in fifth place, with 2.18% of the vote. Flávio and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) concentrated more than 92% of the valid votes. The political polarization of the country resisted the party machine and the PSD was also behind Augusto Cury (Avante) and Renan Santos (Mission), thwarting its presidential project.

Interestingly, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) even waved to Kassab at the start of negotiations for 2026. The gesture, however, was not responded, and the PSD went its own way, picking up a pitiful result in the ballot boxes.

Stable countertop, not expansion

In the House, the PSD elected 43 deputies, compared to 42 in 2022: mere stability, not expressive expansion. The PL won 121 seats and consolidated the leadership. The goal of growth of the bench, boasted by Kassab, did not materialize.

The parliamentary performance reflects the party’s difficulty in positioning itself in the face of polarization. While the PL capitalized on bolsonarism, the PSD was squeezed between the center and the right, without a clear identity for the voter.

Allies lose on Paraná

Despite being one of the country's top-rated governors, Ratinho Jr. (PSD) not only withdrew from the pre-campaign to the Plateau Palace as he even managed to elect his successor in Paraná. His candidate Sandro Alex (PSD) came in second, with 25% of the vote, half of Sergio Moro (PL).

The defeat on the Paraná is emblematic of the wear of the PSD brand even in strongholds previously considered safe. The popularity of Ratinho Jr. did not transfer to the party candidate, evidencing the fragility of the party machine without a charismatic leadership in the dispute.

Neutrality in the second round

The PSD declared neutrality in the second round, preserving alliances such as the one maintained with the PT in Bahia. But his candidate Caiado and the rest of the major parties of the Center have already joined Flavio, with the queue drawn by the federation of União Brasil and Progressives, as well as Republicans and Podemos.

Neutrality may have cost the party political capital, which was left out of the composition of the new government. While historical allies aligned themselves with the winner, the PSD chose to stay out, risking isolation in the new political scenario.

Regional victories do not compensate

The PSD won four governments in the first round, with Dr. Furlan (Amapá), Eduardo Braide (Maranhão), Raquel Lyra (Pernambuco) and Fábio Mitidieri (Sergipe), and continues in the Amazon dispute, with Omar Aziz. These victories, however, do not compensate for the defeats in the great electoral colleges and the frustration of the presidential project.

The general balance of the 2026 elections for the PSD is of stagnation and loss of protagonism. Kassab's myth as a great strategist has suffered a considerable shake-up, and the party will have to recalculate its route for the next disputes.

The result of the polls imposes an internal reflection in the PSD on the future of the legend and the role of Kassab. If this continues, the party may lose even more space in national political chess.

Read Also

Mendonça bans PT from promoting video about Flavio

PT maintains hegemony in BA, CE and PI despite bolsonarist advance

TSE suspends Lula propaganda against Flávio Bolsonaro

Font

www.gazetadopovo.com