Even with El Niño, Brazil is expected to harvest a record grain crop

Brazilian grain production is expected to exceed 367 million tons in the 2026/2027 crop, even in the face of the possible impacts caused by the El Niño. The estimate represents growth of 1.4% compared to the previous cycle and was presented by the National Supply Company (Conab) in the first survey of the new crop.

The advance should occur mainly because of the expansion of the cultivated area in the country. The crops are expected to occupy approximately 85.4 million hectares, an increase of 2.3% compared to the previous harvest.

Soybeans should reach 181.6 million tons

Brazil’s main agricultural crop, soybeans are expected to register a new high in production. The projection points to a harvest of 181.6 million tons, volume 0.7% higher than previously recorded.

The area destined for oilseeds is also expected to advance, with growth estimated at 1.4%. Mato Grosso and Paraná appear again as protagonists of the national production and together, concentrate more than 60% of the area cultivated with soybeans in the country.

Maize could reach 148 million tons

The corn also presents a positive outlook for the 2026/2027 crop. According to estimates, production can reach 148 million tons, an increase of 2.4%.

The expansion is mainly related to the growth of the planted area, which is expected to advance 4.9% compared to the 2025/2026 season.

In the foreign market, Brazilian corn exports are projected at approximately 43.9 million tons. At the same time, domestic consumption is expected to grow by 6.6%, mainly due to the increased use of cereals in ethanol production.

Beans remain stable, while rice should retreat

For the bean, the expectation is stability. The national production is expected to be close to 2.9 million tons during the cycle.

Rice is expected to show a 2.9% reduction in production. Conab points out that even with growth in certain planting areas, productivity may be impaired by the climatic conditions related to El Niño.

El Niño increases risk of excessive rainfall in the South

The El Niño should directly influence the Brazilian climate during the second half of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. The Southern Region may record rainfall volumes above the historical average, increasing the risks of storms, floods and floods, especially in Rio Grande do Sul and in Santa Catarina.

In the North and Northeast regions, the scenario is different, with the possibility of more intense drought and drought periods. The Midwest and Southeast can face higher temperatures and episodes of extreme heat.

Wheat may fall more than 27%

Among the products analyzed, wheat appears with one of the most negative prospects. Brazilian production is estimated at 5.7 million tons, an approximate reduction of 27.2% compared to the previous crop.

The shrinkage is attributed both to the decrease in the area cultivated and to the reduction in productivity.

Soybean exports continue to rise

Even in the face of climate uncertainties, Brazil is expected to maintain strength in the international grain market. Exports of soybeans in grain are estimated at 117.97 million tons, growth of 1.5%.

For rice, on the other hand, the forecast is for a 17.4% drop in exports, since a smaller production should direct greater share of the product to the domestic market supply.