Grynspan leads informal vote for UN secretary-general

An informal vote by the United Nations Security Council on Friday put former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan ahead by a small margin in the race to become the next U.N. secretary general, according to diplomats and other sources close to the process.

Grynspan received nine votes of support, five of rejection and one of "no opinion". Guyana’s ambassador to the UN, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, came in second with eight votes of support, six of rejection and one of “no opinion,” according to diplomats and sources close to the process.

The UN Security Council will formally recommend a candidate to the General Assembly for the election of the 10th UN Secretary-General. Approval by the 193-member General Assembly has long been seen as mere formalism.

A dispute between eight candidates

Eight candidates are vying for the succession of António Guterres, who leaves office at the end of this year after two five-year terms. Finally, the five members of the Council with the right to veto – Estados Unidos, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom – need to reach an agreement on a candidate.

In the indicative votes, which should continue for a few more rounds, the members of the Security Council are asked, through secret ballots, whether they "support", "do not support" or "have no opinion" about the candidates.

It was the third time the 15-member Security Council voted behind closed doors in this informal poll. The first secret ballot in July showed Grynspan with a minimal advantage, and the second ballot last month put Guyana’s ambassador to the UN, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, as the new leader by a small margin.

Alternance in the lead of the votes

The alternation in leadership between Grynspan and Birkett indicates a balanced dispute, without a consolidated favorite. The narrow margin between the two candidates reflects the fragmentation of the Security Council, where each member evaluates criteria such as diplomatic experience, management capacity and regional balance.

The process of selecting the UN Secretary-General is traditionally marked by intense negotiations behind the scenes. Although the General Assembly has the formal role of electing the nominee, in practice the decision is taken by the five permanent members of the Security Council, who have veto power.

Indicative votes serve as a thermometer to measure support for each candidate, but are not binding. They allow Council members to adjust their positions and seek consensus before the formal recommendation.

Next steps of the selection process

New rounds of voting are expected to take place in the coming weeks as members of the Security Council seek to converge around a name. The source did not detail the exact timing of the upcoming votes.

The term of António Guterres ends on 31 December this year. The UN seeks to complete the selection process in advance to allow for a smooth transition.

The election of the Secretary-General is one of the most important moments of multilateral diplomacy, as the occupier of the position acts as a mediator in global conflicts and spokesperson for the international community.

Relevance for Brazil and the world

Brazil, as a non-permanent member of the Security Council in previous mandates, has historically closely followed the election of the Secretary-General. Although the source did not detail the Brazilian position in the current vote, the national diplomacy usually defends criteria of transparency and merit in the process.

For the general public, the choice of the Secretary-General directly influences the global agenda on issues such as peace and security, climate change and human rights. The leadership of the UN is often triggered in international crises, and the profile of the next Secretary-General can shape the organization’s response to these challenges.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to monitor the progress of the votes and will bring new information as soon as it is released by official sources.

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