Increase in ICMS on diesel causes clash between Boulos and Tarcísio; understand the rate adjustment

The increase in the ICMS on fuels, expected to come into force on February 1, 2027, provoked a political dispute between the Chief Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), and the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). The discussion gained momentum after the approval of new rates for diesel, gasoline and cooking gas, with possible impacts on the budget of Brazilians.

The measure was defined on October 27, during a meeting of the National Farm Policy Council (Confaz), responsible for bringing together representatives of the states and the Federal District to discuss tax issues.

Among the products affected, diesel will have the largest proportional readjustment, at 11.1%. The change is of particular concern to the transport sector, as the fuel is widely used by trucks responsible for supplying supermarkets, industries and commercial establishments.

How much will the ICMS increase on fuels?

The new values were established in ICMS conventions 127/2026 and 128/2026, published in the Official Gazette of the Union on October 28.

Check out the planned changes:

Diesel: the tax will go from R$ 1.17 to R$ 1.30 per liter, increase of R$ 0.13.

Gasoline: the charge will increase from R$ 1.57 to R$ 1.64 per liter, plus R$ 0.07.

The ICMS will be raised from R$ 1.47 to R$ 1.54 per kilo, representing R$ 0.91 more in a 13 kilo bottle.

The readjustment follows a systematic periodic update based on the comparison of average fuel prices. For the calculation, data from February to September 2026 were considered in relation to the same period of 2025.

Boulos criticizes governor and points to political contradiction

The decision to raise the tax gained repercussions on Sunday (1st), when Guilherme Boulos used his social networks to question the position of the governor of São Paulo.

The minister accused Tarcísio de Freitas of adopting a different stance from that presented during the electoral campaign, when he criticized the increase in taxes and advocated the reduction of the tax burden.

Boulos argued that the rise of the ICMS over diesel could affect not only truck drivers, but the entire population, considering the Brazilian dependence on road transport for the distribution of food and other products.

The minister also insisted on the governor's consistency, saying that the speech against tax increases should be accompanied by concrete measures to avoid further adjustments.

Government of São Paulo rebuffs accusations

After the declarations, the Palace of the Bandeirantes released a position contesting the criticisms of Boulos.

According to the São Paulo government, the tax change was discussed and approved within the Confaz, through a collective decision involving representatives of different states, including administrations led by the Workers' Party.

The administration of Tarcisio classified the minister’s statements as an attempt to transform a national tax decision into a political confrontation.

The state government also stressed that the ICMS fuel collection rules are uniform in Brazil, reaching states administered by different parties.

Boulos commented again on the subject on social networks and kept his criticism. For the minister, the participation of the São Paulo government in the approval of the readjustment contradicts the position defended by Tarcísio during the electoral dispute.

Re-adjustment may affect food and freight prices

In addition to the impact on fuel stations, the rise of ICMS over diesel could put pressure on logistics costs throughout Brazil.

In the Paraná, especially in the Ponta Grossa and in the Campos Gerais, where road transport plays an important role in the movement of agricultural, industrial and commercial production, the increase may represent additional costs for carriers, producers and companies.

This is because diesel integrates the operating expenses of cargo transportation. If the costs are passed on by the companies, goods transported by trucks may arrive more expensive to the establishments.

Food products, building materials and everyday items are among the segments that may suffer indirect effects.

However, industry experts point out that the change in the tax does not necessarily mean an equivalent increase in the final price of fuels. The amounts charged to consumers also depend on international oil prices, distribution costs, transport and margins applied by companies.

Why will ICMS be readjusted?

The ICMS is a state tax and, in the case of fuels covered by current legislation, it has a single-phase collection, with fixed values per unit of product and uniform national rules.

The 2027 update comes in a scenario of instability in the international oil market, also influenced by conflicts in the Oriente Médio and other producing regions.

The Confaz uses criteria provided for in the legislation to update the values of the tax, considering the evolution of the prices of fuels.

Although the adjustment has already been approved, its effects are expected only for February 2027, allowing distributors, carriers and other companies in the sector to prepare for the new tax conditions.

Meanwhile, the confrontation between Boulos and Tarcísio broadens the debate on the responsibility of governments in taxation policy and on the economic impacts of tax decisions on the population.

Read also: https://bntonline.com.br/janones-rejeita-ministerio-de-lula-e-revela-por-que-decidiu-continuar-na-camara/