Quaest: candidates tie technically; Flávio leads by 1%, by Gleidson Carlos

The new Quaest survey shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro technically tied five days into the second round. Flavio has 45%, against 44% of Lula. In the spontaneous survey, when the numbers are not presented to the interviewees, they mark 40%.

Compared to last week, Flavio oscillated one point down, while Lula kept the same 44%.

Another important fact is the evaluation of the government: 47% disapprove of Lula’s management, while 46% approve.

But regional differences also draw attention. In the Southeast, 43% say they fear more of Lula’s reelection, compared to 41% who fear the return of Bolsonaro. A week ago, the indexes were 47% and 40%, respectively.

In the Midwest and North, the distance also decreased. Now, 46% fear more of Lula’s re-election, while 42% fear the return of Bolsonaro. Last week, it was 47% and 37%.

In the Northeast, the scenario is different: 56% fear more of the return of Bolsonaro, compared to 33% who fear the re-election of Lula. In the South, the dynamics are reversed: 52% fear a new term of Lula, while 33% fear the return of Bolsonaro.

The figures reveal important regional differences and a reduction in the distance between the two groups in the Southeast and the Midwest/North.

With the dispute so close, the debate of TV Globo gains importance as an opportunity for candidates to present their arguments in front of an electorate that can still change its position.

Five days after the vote, attention is focused on regional movements and the ability of campaigns to win over undecided voters.

Quaest heard 2,154 voters between October 17 and 20. Registered in Justiça Eleitoral with the BR-08535/2026 protocol, the survey has a margin of error of two points for more or less, and the confidence level is 95%.

 

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Research shows decrease of Flavio’s advantage over Lula, by Gleidson Carlos