Daniel Mattos' Projection Shows How the ALEP Could Look in 2027, by Gleidson Carlos

PSD and PT decrease, the PL grows little: what is the forecast of chairs for 2027 in Aleppo

A projection by political scientist Daniel Mattos for the Legislative Assembly of the Paraná draws attention, because there is a fundamental detail to understand these numbers: by 2026, the proportional dispute will not be only between isolated parties. The end of coalitions does not allow parties to unite to add up the votes, with the exception of the federations, which dispute the seats as a single aggregation.

This is the case of the União Progressista, formed by União Brasil and Progressives, and the Brazilian Federation of Hope, formed by PT, PCdoB and PV. In Mattos’s projection, the PSD, which now has 19 seats, would fall to 12. The PL would go from 12 to 13. The Brazilian Federation of Hope would have four seats, against six currently. The União Progressista appears with seven. Republicans and MDB would maintain their positions, while PDT, Novo and Podemos would grow.

What this scenario shows is a possible major redistribution of power within Aleppo. But it is not simply a question of which party won or lost seats. The proportional election involves the voting of the boards, federations and the distribution of seats by the electoral system. The House has 54 seats.

Therefore, the big question for 2026 is: which parties and federations have managed to assemble the most competitive plates? Because the dispute over the Assembly can change the map of political forces of Paraná a lot.

 

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