Economy, STF and corruption: what decides the 2026 election

In a scenario of technical tie, with alternation of numerical leadership, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) concentrate most of the voting intentions and try to consolidate among a decisive portion of the electorate classified as independent. The 2026 presidency dispute revolves around issues such as the economy, the STF crisis and corruption, but not everyone has the same weight in the decision of the vote.

It is not specifically about undecided voters, who have not yet defined the vote, nor about all those classified as non-polarized, a category defined by different methodologies of research institutes. It is within this lesser universe, which does not identify either with Flávio or with Lula, that a more specific group of independent voters is observed, without partisan bonds and, therefore, with a greater possibility of changing positions according to what they consider most important for their own lives.

Economy Leads to Independent Voter Concerns

Analysts heard by the People's Gazette say that these independent voters attribute different weights to the main themes of the election. The economy is the biggest impact factor. The crisis of STF and corruption come into the calculation of the vote, but not with the same force.

For Leonardo Barreto, partner of Think Policy, the institutional instability scenario is peripheral to this layer. “The denunciations and corruption patterns generate headlines, but they only ‘take a price’ in the election because people are already dissatisfied with their economic situation,” he says.

The political scientist considers the indicators of economic perception of the government "all very bad" and says that Lula failed to transform into electoral gain measures announced throughout the year, such as credit and consumption initiatives.

Package of goodies does not reverse rejection

These measures, according to a survey by the Gazeta do Povo, totaled R$ 187.2 billion in 2026 alone, consolidated in the so-called “package of goodness” or “re-election kit”. Of this total, R$ 176.7 billion, or 94.4%, are outside the growth limit of expenditures foreseen by the fiscal framework.

Datafolha published on September 17 showed that 50% disapprove of Lula’s work and 48% approve. In the government’s assessment, 42% consider management bad or bad, 34% excellent or good and 23% regular.

For Roberto Reis, an electoral strategist, Lula’s approval compromises his re-election. “No president in Brazil has ever been re-elected below 35 percent of good,” he says. “Lula would be the first to be re-elected with that approval.”

STF and corruption have limited impact

“Thus, this scenario manages to convert voters who declared blank or null vote to vote for Flavio.” For the center or indecisive voter, however, the theme does not move the vote, because the perception prevails that “everyone is corrupt” and that no institution is right in isolation.

Corruption, in turn, affects the two candidates in a different way. “Corruption allegations can have a greater impact on Flavio than they have on Lula,” Cila says. According to her, Lula’s voter tends to relativize cases when he perceives a social or economic benefit.

“Lula’s voters apologize to Lula for the corruption cases. The voter of Flavio, almost 50%, says that he could not vote for him because of this.”

Last-minute measures have limited effect

For Leonardo Barreto, Lula is also resorting to the last “letters in the sleeve” to try to reverse the rejection. Roberto Reis believes that measures of this type at the present time have limited effect.

“Any economic goodness has to be in the first 18 months of the term. It doesn't work to launch right now, on time. It makes no difference in the voter’s mind; on the contrary, it seems to be profitable,” he says.

End of 6x1 scale can be trump

One of the few agendas able to directly dialogue with the routine of this electorate is, according to her, the eventual reduction of the working day, with the end of the 6x1 scale.

A survey by the Locomotive Institute found 67% of Brazilians saying that the 6x1 scale harms mental health and 62% pointing to harm to physical health. The survey heard 1,030 people, from June 2 to 8, in all regions of the country.

Cila’s numbers are higher and she believes the theme should be emphasized in the campaign in the final straight of the first round. “I have 74% of Brazilians who support the end of the 6x1 scale,” he says. “I think it may still be a way for President Lula to talk to his voter.”

Voting Mobility Favors the Right

In the second round, however, the researcher recalls that Lula has a very small voting market to attract. “The mobility of votes is concentrated on the right, while Lula already gathers virtually all the electorate identified with the left and with positive evaluation of his government,” he says.

“In practice, it is an opposition campaign campaign, in which more than half of the population considers that Lula does not deserve a new term. But it will be defined in detail.”

Quaest survey, conducted from September 3 to 6, 2026, with 2,004 voters, at the national level, points to the scenario of technical tie. The interviews were face to face. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, for more or less, with a confidence level of 95%. The survey was registered in the TSE.

With the dispute sharpened, the next steps of the campaigns should focus on themes that directly touch the pocket and the routine of the independent voter. Follow the full coverage on the Boca no Trombone.

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