Who will be the new president of the country? Poll points to a tight race
A survey interviewed 2,154 people between October 10 and 13; margin of error is two percentage points
The Quaest poll on the second round of the 2026 presidential elections points to Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 46% of the voting intentions, while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears with 44%. Published on Wednesday (14), the survey shows a technical tie between the candidates, considering the margin of error of two percentage points for more or less.
Commissioned by TV Globo and O Globo newspaper, the survey surveyed 2,154 people aged 16 years or older between October 10 and 13. The confidence level is 95%.
Difference between candidates is two points
The percentages presented consider the total votes, including those interviewed who wish to vote blank, void or have not yet decided on whom to vote. In this scenario, Flavio appears numerically ahead, but the difference does not allow to affirm a leadership outside the margin of error. With the variation predicted by the survey, Flavio can range from 44% to 48%, while Lula can range from 42% to 46%.
These intervals overlap, characterizing the technical tie. The numbers represent the voting intentions during the period of the interviews and do not represent a prediction of the result of the polls.
The survey also assesses the electorate’s profile
In addition to the national scenario, Quaest investigated the preferences of the interviewees by region, gender, age, schooling, family income, religion, color and political identification. These cuts allow us to observe how the voting intentions are distributed among different groups.
However, the national margin of error should not be applied automatically to segments, which have smaller bases of interviewees.
Research Methodology
The survey was carried out between October 10 and 13, with 2,154 interviewees aged 16 years or older. The national margin of error is two percentage points, for more or for less, with 95% confidence level. The research was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper O Globo and is registered in Justiça Eleitoral under the number BR-08729/2026.
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