Ibovespa falls 0.63% and dollar rises 0.43% on this Monday

The Ibovespa closed the trading on Monday (14.Sep.2026) down 0.63%, to 186,030.66 points. The index ranged from a minimum of 183,813.36 to a maximum of 187,320.95 points. The financial volume traded totaled R$ 15.24 billion. On the same day, the commercial dollar rose 0.43%, quoted at R$ 5,147 in the purchase and sale, with variation between R$ 5,142 and R$ 5,182.

The move reflected a set of external and internal factors that increased investor caution. Among them, the rise of oil, the pressure on the yields of the US Treasury and the unfolding of the crisis in the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF).

Oil and Treasuries Pressure Global Markets

Oil led the list of pressures of the day. Brent for October closed up 1.02% at $105.68 a barrel. The valuation of the commodity usually raises production costs and feeds inflationary expectations, which tends to negatively affect the stock markets.

In addition, the yield of the 10-year Treasuries exceeded 5%. This level reinforced the reading that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should keep monetary policy tougher, with high interest rates longer. High interest on the Estados Unidos attracts capital to US fixed income and puts pressure on risky assets such as emerging market shares.

Technology stocks have retreated in New York after executives at Anthropic and OpenAI advocated more caution in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). The sector has a great weight in the American indexes and its fall has contaminated the global mood.

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Crisis on STF increases local caution

In the domestic scenario, the unfolding of the crisis in the STF has increased the caution of investors. The source did not detail the specific events, but institutional instability usually generates risk aversion and flight of foreign capital.

The Banco Central Brazil promoted a 0.25 percentage point cut in Selic, from 14% to 13.75% per year. The reduction was already expected by the market, but signals gradual monetary relief. In contrast, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage point on the Estados Unidos, to the range of 3.75% to 4% a year, widening the rate differential.

This scenario of higher interest rates abroad and lower interest rates in Brazil tends to reduce the attractiveness of carry trade, pressuring the real. Still, the dollar rose moderately, reflecting the balance between local and global factors.

Impacts for the Brazilian investor

For the local investor, the combination of falling stock market and rising dollar demands redoubled attention. The oil spike could put pressure on domestic inflation, while high U.S. interest rates limit the space for Selic’s more aggressive cuts.

The financial volume of R$ 15.24 billion indicates relevant participation, but without panic. The Ibovespa minimum was far from the maximum, showing controlled volatility. The source did not detail the behavior of specific sectors of B3.

The market continues to monitor the next steps of the Fed and the STF, as well as the trajectory of oil. The continuation of the institutional crisis can amplify risk aversion, while a truce could bring relief to Brazilian assets.

Next steps and expectations

Investors are awaiting new data on inflation and economic activity, both in Brazil and in Estados Unidos. The minutes of the last Copom meeting and speeches of Fed leaders should calibrate the stakes for the next interest decisions.

On the political front, the evolution of the crisis in the STF will be closely monitored. Any sign of stability can unlock foreign flows to the Brazilian stock market. On the other hand, new episodes of tension tend to keep the dollar under pressure.

The Boca no Trombone Portal will continue to monitor financial market developments and their impacts on the regional and national economy.

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